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Summary:
U.S.
The Army is gearing up to keep current troop levels in Iraq through 2010, AP reports. The announcement was the latest acknowledgment by Pentagon officials that a significant withdrawal of troops from Iraq is not likely in the immediate future.

In President Bush’s imaginary world, Saddam Hussein defied UN demands that he get rid of weapons of mass destruction and barred U.N. inspectors; al-Qaeda’s public statements must be believed; and U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is unthinkable because it would let al-Qaeda "extend the caliphate," a mythical state that doesn’t exist, writes Robert Parry.

John Bolton was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize by Sweden's former deputy Prime Minister for "exposing Iran's secret plans to develop nuclear weapons," BBC reports.

President Bush said Wednesday he would not use force against North Korea because "diplomacy hasn’t run its course," but acknowledged many Americans wonder why he invaded Iraq but has not taken military action to head off North Korea’s race for a bomb.

The American-financed rebuilding of an Iraqi police headquarters that was meant to show a new approach to reconstruction has instead turned out to be rife with shoddy construction and is exposing security forces to unnecessary risk, a federal oversight agency said yesterday.

A former Pentagon employee accepted bribes worth thousands of dollars for steering $6 million in contracts to an Iraqi company, according to an indictment released yesterday by the Justice Department.

President Bush asserted yesterday the administration's strategy on North Korea is superior to the one pursued by his predecessor, because Clinton reached a bilateral agreement that failed, while the current administration is trying to end North Korea's nuclear programs through multi-nation talks. But the reality is more complicated, the Washington Post reports. Bush's current policy envisions bilateral negotiations with North Korea on certain issues, while it is not fully accurate to describe the negotiations that led to a 1994 agreement between the US and North Korea as purely the result of one-on-one negotiations.

The US wants a vote on North Korea by Friday despite opposition from China to some of the economic and weapons sanctions aimed at punishing North Korea for its reported nuclear weapons test, Reuters reports.

Iran
The permanent members of the U.N. Security Council agreed Wednesday to start working on U.N. sanctions against Iran, but failed to bridge differences on how harsh the penalties should be, AP reports. While the U.S. called for broad sanctions to punish Iran, Russia and China favored less severe measures.

Iraq
Iraq’s Shiite-dominated Parliament approved a law on Wednesday enabling provinces to unite to form autonomous regions, in spite of vehement opposition by Sunni Arab leaders. Juan Cole notes that Sunni Arabs only agreed to run for office and participate in last December's elections because they were promised an effective voice on this sort of issue.

The senior American commander in Iraq said Wednesday violence in Baghdad had reached its highest levels in recent weeks, despite the assignment of thousands more American and Iraqi troops to the capital in August.

Israel
Dovish members of the American Jewish community are planning to set up a pro-Israel alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported. Among figures behind the initiative are philanthropists George Soros, Edgar and Charles Bronfman and former Democratic congressman Mel Levine.

Lebanon
Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora warned Wednesday Israeli military flights over Lebanon were endangering the truce that ended this summer's war, the Washington Post reports. The UN considers the overflights a violation of the truce.

Turkey
Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk won the Nobel literature prize Thursday. His trial for "insulting Turkishness" raised concerns about free speech in Turkey. Turkey's Foreign Ministry congratulated Pamuk, wishing him continued success and saying the prize would help give Turkish literature a wider audience abroad.

Egypt
Former President Sadat's nephew Talaat was brought before a military court Wednesday, charged with defaming the army for saying his uncle had died because of military negligence. The case echoes other recent efforts to silence criticism of Egypt's leadership. Talaat, a member of Parliament, will be tried in secret with no right to appeal. If convicted, he faces up to three years in prison.

North Korea
North Korea's second most powerful political figure threatened Wednesday North Korea would carry out further nuclear tests if the US did not change what he called its "hostile attitude." He dismissed the impact economic sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council would have. He said North Korea would refuse to return to six-party talks unless the US dropped sanctions imposed in 2005. Analysts have said the explosion Monday was small enough to suggest that the test partially failed or was not in fact nuclear.

Colombia
A battle to wean Colombian farmers off of the cocaine trade is quietly being cut back in a region where cocaine production is surging, AP reports. The US Agency for International Development cites security risks for its workers and a lack of private investment partners for its pullout from Caquetá State. Six years and more than $4 billion in American tax dollars after Plan Colombia began in Caquetá, coca is still the region’s No. 1 cash crop. But programs to provide farmers with a profitable alternative to coca are vanishing.

Contents:
U.S.
1) Army: Troops to Stay in Iraq Until 2010
Robert Burns, Associated Press, Wednesday, October 11, 2006; 11:05 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/29/AR2006092900471.html
For planning purposes, the Army is gearing up to keep current troop levels in Iraq for another four years, a new indication that conditions there are too unstable to foresee an end to the war. Gen. Schoomaker, Army chief of staff, cautioned against reading too much into the planning, which is done far in advance to prepare the right mix of combat units for expected deployments. He noted that it is easier to scale back later if conditions allow, than to ramp up if they don't. "This is not a prediction that things are going poorly or better," Schoomaker said.
 
Even so, his comments were the latest acknowledgment by Pentagon officials that a significant withdrawal of troops from Iraq is not likely in the immediate future. There are now 141,000 U.S. troops there.

2) Bush & His Dangerous Delusions
Robert Parry, Consortiumnews.com, October 12, 2006
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2006/101106.html
In George W. Bush’s world, Saddam Hussein defied UN demands that he get rid of his weapons of mass destruction and barred U.N. inspectors; al-Qaeda’s public statements must be believed even when contradicted by its private comments; and U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is unthinkable because it would let al-Qaeda "extend the caliphate," a mythical state that doesn’t really exist.

At his Oct. 11 news conference, Bush gave the country a peek into his imaginary world, a bizarre place impenetrable by facts and logic, where falsehoods, once stated, become landmarks. Bush maneuvered casually through this world like an experienced guide making passing references to favorite points of interest, such as Hussein’s defiance of U.N. resolutions banning WMD (when Hussein actually had eliminated his WMD stockpiles).

"We tried the diplomacy," Bush said. "Remember it? We tried resolution after resolution after resolution." Though the resolutions had worked – and left Hussein stripped of his WMD arsenal – that isn’t how it looks in Bush’s world, where the resolutions failed and there was no choice but to invade.

3) Bolton Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize
BBC News, Thursday, 12 October 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5398780.stm
The US Ambassador at the UN, John Bolton, and long-time Iran investigator Kenneth Timmerman were formally nominated by Sweden's former deputy Prime Minister Per Ahlmark, for what was described in a press release in February as playing a major role in exposing Iran's secret plans to develop nuclear weapons.

They documented Iran's secret nuclear build-up and revealed Iran's "repeated lying" and false reports to the International Atomic Energy Agency, a press release said. A Bush administration hawk, he has been a long-time critic of the UN and his appointment there caused considerable controversy. The US Senate has yet to confirm him in the post.

4) For Bush, Many Questions on Iraq and North Korea
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/washington/12prexy.html
President Bush said Wednesday he would not use force against North Korea because "diplomacy hasn’t run its course," but acknowledged many Americans wonder why he invaded Iraq but has not taken military action to head off North Korea’s race for a bomb. "I’m asked questions around the country, 'Just go ahead and use the military,' " Bush said at a morning news conference "And my answer is that I believe the commander in chief must try all diplomatic measures before we commit our military."

Then, without prompting, the president asked an obvious next question. "I’ll ask myself a follow-up," Bush said. " 'If that’s the case, why did you use military action in Iraq?' And the reason why is because we tried the diplomacy."        

Experts believe the nuclear buildup in the North dates back to the early 1990’s, when the first President Bush was in office. Under an agreement Clinton struck in 1994, North Korea agreed to freeze its production of plutonium in return for energy aid. North Korea abided by the freeze, but starting around 1997, it took steps on a second, secret nuclear program. In 2002, after South Korean and American intelligence agencies found conclusive evidence of that program, the Bush administration confronted the North with the evidence that it had cheated while Clinton was in office. That led to the six-nation talks, involving the US, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia.

"The Clinton administration was prepared to accept an imperfect agreement in the interest of achieving limits," said Gary Samore, a North Korea expert who helped negotiate the 1994 agreement. "The Bush administration is not prepared to accept an imperfect agreement, and the result is that we have no limits."

5) U.S. Agency Cites Flaws in Another Iraqi Construction Project
James Glanz, New York Times, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/world/middleeast/12reconstruct.html
The American-financed rebuilding of an Iraqi police headquarters that was meant to show a new approach to reconstruction has instead turned out to be rife with shoddy construction and is exposing security forces to unnecessary risk, a federal oversight agency said yesterday.

The headquarters project, in the volatile northern city of Mosul, is the second police-related contract to face harsh criticism recently. Two weeks ago, the same oversight agency told Congress of grotesque plumbing failures and other problems at a $72 million police college in Baghdad.

In the earlier project, most of the criticism was directed at Parsons, the American contractor hired by the Army Corps of Engineers to carry out the work with the help of Iraqi subcontractors. But this time, in a step the Army Corps has said will eliminate some of the construction problems, the work was contracted directly to a local Iraqi company.

But the Mosul police headquarters project, a $988,000 contract that was much smaller and presumably simpler than the earlier one, suffered some of the same troubles, according to a report released yesterday by the agency, the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction.

Brian Flynn, assistant inspector general for inspections at the oversight agency, said there had been no plans to look into the headquarters, called One West, until an inspection team happened to be in Mosul and was approached by the Iraqi police. The police "were so upset with the quality of construction that they asked us to inspect it while we were there," Flynn said.

Problems with the construction were not hard to find, the agency’s report said. One part of the contract called for the construction of 10 showers, 12 toilets, 10 urinals, 10 sinks and a changing room at One West. Instead, just one shower and one toilet had been built, and there was no changing room. A tree in the spot where the construction took place was allowed to remain standing, and its trunk was cemented into the building’s structure. An electrical generator was delivered but not installed and instead of installing fans in the guard houses, as called for in the contract, workers installed extra windows, leaving the guards exposed in a city where police stations have frequently been attacked.

The problems stemmed from a poor Iraqi contractor and a lack of inspection by Army engineers early in the project, said Stuart Bowen, who runs the oversight agency. "The issue is oversight," Bowen said. "Our experience is that where there is good oversight there are good projects."

6) American Accused of Taking a Bribe for Work on Iraq
New York Times, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/world/middleeast/12bling.html
A former Pentagon employee accepted gold jewelry worth thousands of dollars for illegally steering nearly $6 million in contracts to an Iraqi company for work at a sprawling American military base adjacent to Baghdad’s main airport, according to an indictment released yesterday by the Justice Department.

The indictment charges the former employee, Bonnie Murphy, with accepting a bribe and illegally padding her federal salary. From July to December 2004, court papers say, Murphy accepted gold jewelry worth $9,000 from the owners of the company in exchange for ensuring that they received lucrative contracts. Murphy, who worked for a Pentagon office responsible for disposing of surplus and hazardous materials, carefully followed through on her promises to the company, court papers charge. They allege that before each contract was awarded, she requested an outside contractor be used for the work and then recommended that the company that had given her the jewelry be hired.

7) Bush Faults Clinton Policy, But the Debate is Complex
Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Thursday, October 12, 2006; A23
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/11/AR2006101101793.html
President Bush asserted yesterday the administration's strategy on North Korea is superior to the one pursued by his predecessor, because Clinton reached a bilateral agreement that failed, while the current administration is trying to end North Korea's nuclear programs through multi-nation talks.

As Secretary of State Rice said Tuesday: "The US tried direct dialogue with the North Koreans in the '90s, and that resulted in the North Koreans signing onto agreements that they then didn't keep." But the reality is more complicated, according to former and current U.S. officials and a review of the diplomatic history.

Bush's current policy, in fact, envisions direct, bilateral negotiations with North Korea on certain issues in the six-nation talks, such as missile proliferation and normalizing relations. That commitment to direct talks is enshrined in the agreement of principles reached in September 2005. Rice was prepared to authorize her chief negotiator to travel to Pyongyang in November 2005, provided North Korea shut down its nuclear reactor as a sign of good faith. It refused that condition, and the trip was scrubbed.

It is not fully accurate to describe the negotiations that led to a 1994 agreement between the US and North Korea as purely the result of one-on-one negotiations. During talks that produced the Agreed Framework, in which North Korea said it would freeze its nuclear program, U.S. negotiators briefed Japanese and South Korean officials every day. South Korea and Japan agreed to bankroll much of the cost of the light-water reactors that were to be provided to North Korea under the deal.

Robert Gallucci, chief negotiator of the accord and now dean of the Georgetown School of Foreign Service, said it is "ludicrous" to say the Clinton agreement failed. For eight years, the Agreed Framework kept North Korea's five-megawatt plutonium reactor frozen and under international inspection, while North Korea did not build planned 50- and 200-megawatt reactors. If those reactors had been built and running, he said, North Korea would now have enough plutonium for more than 100 nuclear weapons.

By Gallucci's account, North Korea may have produced a small amount of plutonium for one or two weapons before Clinton came into office - during the administration of Bush's father - but "no more material was created on his watch." When Clinton left office, officials saw signs that North Korea may have been attempting to create a clandestine uranium enrichment program, but nothing was definitive.

Such a program would violate the Agreed Framework. When the Bush administration decided it had conclusive proof of that enrichment in July 2002, it confronted North Korea and terminated fuel oil deliveries promised under the Agreed Framework. In response, North Korea evicted the inspectors, restarted the reactor and retrieved weapons-grade plutonium from 8,000 fuel rods that had been kept in a cooling pond. Intelligence analysts now think that, before Monday's apparent nuclear test, North Korea had enough plutonium for as many as a dozen weapons.

While the Bush administration accused Pyongyang, North Koreans complained bitterly that the US was the chief violator of the pact because the reactors were years behind in construction and because promises to end hostile relations and normalize ties were not fulfilled.

8) U.S. pushes for Friday U.N. vote on N. Korea sanctions
Evelyn Leopold, Reuters, Thursday, October 12, 2006; 8:40 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101200320.html
The US wants a vote on North Korea by Friday despite opposition from China to some of the economic and weapons sanctions aimed at punishing North Korea for its reported nuclear weapons test. A new draft resolution is expected to be formally introduced to the U.N. Security Council Thursday by the U.S., leaving members the usual minimum of 24 hours to consult before a vote.

China has agreed to some punitive measures against its ally. But the new U.S.-drafted resolution changes few provisions China opposed earlier, possibly delaying the U.N. timetable for a vote without further revisions. The resolution would impose an arms embargo, a ban on any transfer or development of weapons of mass destruction and a ban on the sale of luxury goods to North Korea. It would freeze funds overseas of people or businesses connected with North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

And it adds a proposal by Japan that would allow, but not require, nations to bar the entry of individuals and their families connected to or supporting the North's policies on weapons of mass destruction. [This seems an odd provision for democracies to adopt. If your crazy uncle writes a letter in support of North Korea's nuclear program, you can be stopped at the border - JFP.] One controversial provision not changed in the new draft is authorization for international inspections of cargo moving in and out of North Korea to detect weapons-related material. Diplomats said China had rejected this earlier. [Without safeguards such a provision could be used to harass shipping of non-military goods -JFP.]

Iran
9) U.N. Disagrees on Sanctions Against Iran
Associated Press, October 11, 2006, Filed at 10:08 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html
The permanent members of the U.N. Security Council agreed Wednesday to start working on U.N. sanctions against Iran next week, but failed to bridge differences on how harsh the penalties should be, diplomats and officials said. They told AP that while the U.S. called for broad sanctions to punish Iran's defiance in pursuing its nuclear program, Russian and Chinese representatives at a top-level Vienna meeting favored less severe measures.

One of the diplomats said that while the US had urged broad sanctions - such as a total ban on missile and nuclear technology sales - the Russians and Chinese backed prohibitions of selected items as a first step.He also said the Chinese and Russian envoys called for renewed negotiations with the Iranians in parallel to working on sanctions.

Iran, OPEC's No. 2 producer of crude, is apparently ready to face the threat of sanctions because it is confident they will be more symbolic than damaging because of international concerns any tough penalties could prompt Tehran to retaliate by cutting off oil exports. Restating his country's defiance, President Ahmadinejad was quoted by state television Wednesday as saying ''the day sanctions are imposed on Iran by its enemies would be a day of national celebration for the Iranian nation.''

Iraq
10) In Victory for Shiite Leader, Iraqi Parliament Approves Creating Autonomous Regions
Kirk Semple, New York Times, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/world/middleeast/12iraq.html
Iraq’s Shiite-dominated Parliament approved a law on Wednesday enabling provinces to unite to form autonomous regions, in spite of vehement opposition by Sunni Arab leaders who said it could splinter the republic and disadvantage the minority Sunni population. The vote was a victory for Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the dominant Shiite bloc, who wants to form an autonomous state from nine predominantly Shiite provinces of southern Iraq, a region that includes much of the nation’s oil and other natural resources.

The right to form semi-independent regions was guaranteed in the Iraqi Constitution, which voters approved a year ago. The law passed Wednesday defined the mechanisms of the process. The law allows provinces to hold referendums on whether to merge into larger states, but it imposes an 18-month moratorium on the process. Consent by a third of a province’s governing council or a tenth of its electorate can prompt a referendum, which would then require approval by a majority of voters to pass.

The Sunni Arab blocs and some Shiite and secular legislators, who had united last month to block the legislation, boycotted the session on Wednesday in an unsuccessful effort to prevent a quorum. But 140 of the 275 members attended and voted unanimously for the bill, AP reported. Sunni Arab leaders fear any plan to divide Iraq into regions would eventually shift control of its oil wealth to the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south, leaving them with the relatively barren central and western regions.

"We had our objections, and when they were disregarded, we found that the best way to deal with that was to boycott the session," said Salman al-Jumaili, a legislator from the Iraqi Consensus Front, the largest Sunni bloc. "We believe that implementing this law in its present form will be a prescription for dividing Iraq." In the governing Shiite coalition, which remains divided on the issue, legislators loyal to Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr have demanded that any discussion of federalism proceed only after American forces have left Iraq.

Members of the Fadhila Party, a Shiite group wary of Hakim’s power, had opposed the law because it did not include clauses to prevent the formation of one huge federation across southern Iraq. [Juan Cole notes in his blog: "Sunni Arabs only agreed to run for office and participate in last December's elections because they were promised an effective voice on this sort of issue, over which they had rejected the new constitution in all three provinces they dominate. This parliamentary maneuver has left the Sunni Arabs looking like fools and has left Iraq looking as though it has a tyranny of the Shiite majority. Expect more Sunni Arab violence as a result." http://www.juancole.com/ -JFP]

11) Top U.S. Officer in Iraq Sees Spike in Violence
David S. Cloud, New York Times, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/world/middleeast/12military.html
The senior American commander in Iraq said Wednesday violence in Baghdad had reached its highest levels in recent weeks, despite the assignment of thousands more American and Iraqi troops to the capital in August. The comments, by Gen. George Casey, came as President Bush said he was open to modifying strategy in Iraq if military commanders determined that a new approach was required.

Bush was responding to questions about comments from, among others, Senator Warner, chair of the Armed Services Committee, and James Baker, co-chair of a panel reviewing Iraq policy, both of whom have said some new approach may be needed.

General Casey said that the redeployment of troops to Baghdad in August had initially reduced the number of killings and bombings but that attacks had gone back up recently. "The levels of violence over the last few weeks are as high as they have been," he said.

Israel
12) New pro-Israel lobby as alternative to AIPAC
Amiram Barkat, Haaretz,  02:28 12/10/2006
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/773520.html
Dovish pro-Israel members of the American Jewish community are planning to set up a pro-Israel alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported yesterday. Among figures behind the initiative are philanthropist George Soros, who has not been involved with Israeli issues until now, philanthropists Edgar and Charles Bronfman and Mel Levine, a former Democratic congressman.

Meretz chairman Yossi Beilin commended the establishment of the new lobby. Beilin told Haaretz the lobby would portray another facet of American Jewry. "It's important for both the administration and congress to know that AIPAC is a right- wing organization that represents only part of the Jewish community in the US," Beilin said.

After meeting the lobby's other founders, Soros said he would take part in its founding ceremony on October 26 in New York. The founders have been discussing ways to persuade the Bush administration to increase its involvement in finding a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The initiative for the lobby is spearheaded by David Elcott, executive director of the Israel Policy Forum (IPF), an advocacy think tank founded to counter AIPAC's objection to the Oslo Accords.

Lebanon
13) Overflights by Israel Said to Violate Truce
Anthony Shadid, Washington Post, Thursday, October 12, 2006; A24
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/11/AR2006101101633.html
Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora warned Wednesday Israeli military flights over Lebanon were endangering the truce that ended this summer's war. Siniora said the overflights were occurring daily. The UN, which considers them a violation of the truce, said it recorded 10 overflights of warplanes and surveillance drones from Oct. 3 to midnight Oct. 9. "I am willing to accept whatever any other sovereign country would accept for itself. Would they allow it?" Siniora asked. "I mean, would the US allow flyovers of Russian planes? If they would allow it, I accept it."

Israel has said it will continue overflights of Lebanese territory until U.N. Resolution 1701 is, in its view, implemented fully. It says that would require the return of the two soldiers that Hezbollah captured on July 12 and an inspection mechanism to ensure that no weapons cross the Syrian border into Lebanon to resupply Hezbollah guerrillas. The overflights pose a delicate issue for Siniora, whose government has come under pressure from Hezbollah and followers of a powerful Christian politician, Michel Aoun, to resign in favor of a government they deem more representative.

Since 2000, Hezbollah had represented the main armed presence in south Lebanon and had contended that the Lebanese army, vastly outgunned by its Israeli equivalent, was too weak to protect the border. After the August cease-fire, the Lebanese army was deployed to the south for the first time in a generation, a move Siniora hailed as one of his government's greatest achievements. Hezbollah has warned, however, it might act if Israeli violations of the truce continue and the Lebanese army and a newly strengthened U.N. force in the area do nothing to end them.

Siniora said that, in time, the army might have to respond to Israel's actions. "It is the duty of our army to defend the country," he said. But he acknowledged the dispute would probably have to be resolved diplomatically. "Now we are exhausting all diplomatic channels and means, and this is how it should be done," he said. He noted that when Hezbollah was effectively guarding the border from 2000 to 2006, Israeli overflights were routine but the Shiite militia was largely powerless to stop them.

Siniora's government, backed by the US and EU countries, is at the center of a growing polarization in Lebanese politics. The tension, often most pronounced between the country's Sunni and Shiite Muslim communities, has left many here gloomy about what lies ahead. Aoun and, to a lesser extent, Hezbollah have demanded Siniora's cabinet resign in favor of a "national unity government" that would give them more power. Corruption, rife in Lebanese public life, is one of their biggest complaints. So is what they view as the government's ineffectiveness.

Turkey
14) Turkish Writer Orhan Pamuk Wins Nobel
Matt Moore & Karl Ritter, Associated Press, Thursday, October 12, 2006; 11:38 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101200164.html
Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk, whose lyrical gifts and uncompromising politics have brought him acclaim worldwide and prosecution at home, won the Nobel literature prize Thursday for his works dealing with the symbols of clashing cultures. The selection of Pamuk, whose trial for "insulting Turkishness" raised concerns about free speech in Turkey, continues a trend among Nobel judges of picking writers in conflict with their own governments. British playwright Harold Pinter, a strong opponent of his country's involvement in the Iraq war, won last year.

Pamuk, currently visiting professor at Columbia, told AP he was overjoyed by the award, saying remarks he made earlier referring to the Nobel literature prize as "nonsense" were a mistranslation. He told AP he accepted the prize as not "just a personal honor, but as an honor bestowed upon the Turkish literature and culture I represent."

Pamuk, whose novels include "Snow" and "My Name is Red," was charged last year for telling a Swiss newspaper Turkey was unwilling to deal with two of the most painful episodes in recent Turkish history: the massacre of Armenians during World War I, which Turkey insists was not a planned genocide, and recent guerrilla fighting in Turkey's overwhelmingly Kurdish southeast.

"Thirty-thousand Kurds and 1 million Armenians were killed in these lands, and nobody but me dares to talk about it," he told the newspaper. The controversy came at a sensitive time. Turkey had recently begun membership talks with the EU, which harshly criticized the trial. The charges against Pamuk were dropped in January.

In Turkey, fellow novelists, poets and publishers were among the first to congratulate Pamuk, but nationalists who regard the novelist as a traitor accused the Swedish Academy of rewarding the author because he had belittled Turks.

Turkey's Foreign Ministry congratulated Pamuk, wishing him continued success and saying the prize would help give Turkish literature a wider audience abroad. Prominent Armenian writers also hailed the decision to award a Nobel to Pamuk.

Egypt
15) Remarks Land Sadat Nephew in Military Court
Michael Slackman, New York Times, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/world/africa/12sadat.html
25 years after President Anwar el-Sadat was assassinated, his nephew Talaat was brought before a military court Wednesday, charged with defaming the army for saying on television his uncle had died because of military negligence. Sadat’s case has attracted wide attention in Egypt, because it has reopened a historical wound and because it echoes other recent efforts to silence criticism of the nation’s leadership, political analysts and opposition Parliament members said. Sadat, a member of Parliament, has a long history of sparring with powerful people in the governing National Democratic Party.

The government moved fast and hard against Sadat after he criticized the military for failing to protect his uncle and suggested there was a broader conspiracy that had not been revealed. The next day, the speaker of Parliament stripped Sadat of his parliamentary immunity, allowing him to be brought before a military court, where he will be tried in secret with no right to appeal. If convicted, he faces up to three years in prison. "They want to get rid of me," Sadat said. "This is an act directed at distancing me from political life."

North Korea
16) N. Korea's No. 2 Official Warns of Further Tests
Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, Thursday, October 12, 2006; A22
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/11/AR2006101100346.html
North Korea's second most powerful political figure, Kim Yong Nam, indicated Wednesday North Korea would carry out further nuclear tests if the US did not change what he called its "hostile attitude." Kim dismissed the impact that economic sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council would have on his impoverished country. "Even as economic sanctions increase by day, our economy in general has entered a rising trend," he was quoted as saying.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, declaring that his country is "in gravest danger," moved Wednesday to ban imports from North Korea and stop North Korean ships and citizens from coming to Japan.

Kim's remarks were the first public comment from a high-ranking North Korean official since the government announced a nuclear test Monday. He added that North Korea would refuse to return to stalled six-party talks aimed at its nuclear disarmament unless the US dropped sanctions imposed in September 2005 that target North Korea's alleged counterfeiting and other illegal businesses.

Analysts have said the explosion detected in North Korea's barren northeast on Monday was small enough to suggest that the test partially failed or was not in fact nuclear. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso told a parliamentary panel that Japan had unconfirmed information that another test might be coming.

Colombia
17) Less Aid for Colombian States Rich in Coca
Associated Press, October 12, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/world/americas/12Colombia.html
A $4 billion battle to wean Colombian farmers off the cocaine trade through a combination of military might and American aid is quietly being cut back in a region where cocaine production is surging. In an internal memo, the US Agency for International Development cites unacceptable security risks for its workers and a lack of private investment partners for its pullout from Caquetá State.

Six years and more than $4 billion in American tax dollars after Plan Colombia began in Caquetá, coca, the raw ingredient of cocaine, is still the region’s No. 1 cash crop. But the programs meant to provide farmers with a profitable alternative to growing coca are vanishing. Washington spends $70 million annually on development projects in drug-producing areas of Colombia. But under AID's new five-year, $350 million plan for development projects, Caquetá and four other Amazonian states where coca production is rising will not receive a penny.

"Instead of investing generously to eliminate dependency on the illegal drug trade, we’re being shunned," said Luis Fernando Almario, a congressman from Caquetá. An official at the US Embassy in Bogotá said resources from Caquetá would be redirected to areas with a greater likelihood of sustaining development.


Just Foreign Policy News
October 11, 2006

Summary:
U.S.
A team of American and Iraqi public health researchers has estimated that 600,000 civilians have died in violence across Iraq since the American invasion. The estimates suggest that official stasistics and Western press accounts severely understate Iraq deaths due to the invasion and occupation.

Nearly one in five soldiers leaving the military after serving in Iraq and Afghanistan has been at least partly disabled as a result of service, according to documents of the Department of Veterans Affairs obtained by a Washington research group.The number suggests that taxpayers have only begun to pay the long-term financial cost of the two conflicts, the New York Times reports.

Following North Korea’s claim that it detonated a nuclear device, Senator McCain sought to place blame on former President Clinton, calling the framework agreement Clinton negotiated a failure. Democrats pressed the argument that North Korea’s claimed advance was a byproduct of Bush’s decision to wage war against Iraq, which proved not to have any banned weapons, while doing too little about North Korea.

North Korea warned it would regard increased pressure from the US as a "declaration of war."

Secretary of State Rice said Tuesday the US did not intend to invade or attack North Korea, but she warned the North’s leaders that they now risked sanctions "unlike anything that they have faced before." Sanctions sought by the US include international inspections of all cargo moving in and out of North Korea to detect weapons-related material. But that might prove difficult for China and Russia to accept, the New York Times reports.

Trying to force North Korea's leaders to abandon their nuclear program with military threats and a further tightening of the embargoes would increasing the suffering of its already starving people, Jimmy Carter writes.  North Korean leaders have proven themselves almost impervious to outside pressure.  The better option is to put into effect the September denuclearization agreement. The framework for agreement exists, with the US giving a firm statement of no hostile intent, and moving toward normal relations if North Korea forgoes any further nuclear weapons program and remains at peace.

Expanding missile defenses and ending humanitarian aid to North Korea are sure to destabilize the region, when what is needed is calm, smart diplomacy, writes Kevin Martin of Peace Action in a letter to the Times.

Iran
Major powers are to discuss sanctions on Wednesday that could be imposed against Iran for its refusal to abandon uranium enrichment, the State Department said Tuesday. A spokesman predicted discussions would begin "in earnest'' later this week on a U.N. sanctions resolution against Iran, but said the Security Council would act more swiftly against North Korea.

The Bush administration is considering allowing an American company to export spare parts to repair Iranian planes because of concern the planes are not safe, the State Department said. A spokesman said the recommendation was based on a warning by the FAA that calls for the "immediate overhaul" of some American-made turbines on Airbus jets operated by Iran Air.

Iraq
Many voters in Massachusetts will get to register their opinion on the war in Iraq next month when they consider a ballot question on whether the US should withdraw all troops, the Boston Globe reports. AFSC said more voters can consider the Nov. 7 ballot question than any other advisory policy issue in state history.

Israel
A recent move by the Israeli Army to ban new Palestinian students from the West Bank and Gaza from Israeli universities for security reasons is causing controversy in Israel. On Tuesday, Gisha, an Israeli group that is an advocate for Palestinian rights, submitted a petition to the high court, calling the ban illegal. "Gisha calls upon Israel not to prevent Palestinian students from studying just because they are Palestinian," said the group’s director, Sari Bashi. "No one should be denied access to education based on his or her national identity."

Lebanon
"Little more than a week after Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon," a new fence around the northern portion of the village of Ghajar "to separate the northern side of the village from the rest of Lebanon," according to Lebanese,  "amounts to a new occupation of their territory," the New York Times reports. The article reports that Israeli troops have not yet withdrawn from the northern part of the village, which is in Lebanon; thus contradicting the claim of the lead sentence of the article, that Israeli troops had withdrawn from Lebanon.

North Korea
It is military insecurity, experts say, and not a desire to grab attention or gain leverage, that drove North Korea's decision to declare it had tested a nuclear weapon, the New York Times reports. Experts say North Korea wants an effective deterrent against the U.S. in case of war.

China
China Tuesday expressed a rare willingness to support U.N. sanctions against its ally North Korea, but it said any punitive action would have to be narrowly targeted at the country's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs, the Washington Post reports. The US pressed the U.N. Security Council to support far stronger economic and trade measures that would permit international inspections of all North Korean cargo to search for weapons and to North Korea's ability to finance its nuclear program.

Haiti
The US has partly lifted its arms embargo against Haiti, allowing Haiti to buy weapons for police battling gangs, AP reports. President Préval's government had complained the embargo was hampering its ability to restore order and confront the gangs.

OPEC
OPEC ministers are still debating how to put a brake on falling oil prices, which have dropped nearly 25 percent since their high in mid-July, the New York Times reports. Iran and Venezuela want production cuts. Kuwait and Algeria agree but disagree on how to apportion the cuts. Saudi Arabia supports a production cut, OPEC watchers say, but wants to be discreet weeks before elections in the US.

Contents:
U.S.
1) Iraqi Dead May Total 600,000, Study Says
Sabrina Tavernise & Donald G. McNeil Jr., New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/middleeast/11casualties.html
A team of American and Iraqi public health researchers has estimated that 600,000 civilians have died in violence across Iraq since the 2003 American invasion, the highest estimate ever for the toll of the war here. The figure breaks down to about 15,000 violent deaths a month, quadruple that for July given by Iraqi government hospitals and the morgue in Baghdad and published last month in a UN report. That month was the highest for Iraqi civilian deaths since the American invasion. But it is an estimate and not a precise count, and researchers acknowledged a margin of error that ranged from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths.

[Note that using the numbers in the above paragraph, even if the "lower bound" figure of 426,369 were correct, that would still amount to more than 10,000 violent deaths a month, triple the morgue/UN number for July. Thus the study represents significant evidence that official statistics represent a dramatic undercount. Juan Cole in his blog today recounts reasons for believing that official statistics significantly undercount Iraqi deaths: http://www.juancole.com/2006/10/655000-dead-in-iraq-since-bush.html. He also writes: "The New York Times report has already made a serious error, saying that deaths in the Saddam period were covered up. The families interviewed knew whether their loved ones were disappearing in 2001 and 2002 and had no reason to cover it up if they were. The survey established the baseline with a contemporary questionnaire. It wasn't depending on Iraqi government statistics." - JFP]


2) Data Suggests Vast Costs Loom in Disability Claims
Scott Shane, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/washington/11veterans.html
Nearly one in five soldiers leaving the military after serving in Iraq and Afghanistan has been at least partly disabled as a result of service, according to documents of the Department of Veterans Affairs obtained by a Washington research group.The number of veterans granted disability compensation, more than 100,000 to date, suggests that taxpayers have only begun to pay the long-term financial cost of the two conflicts. About 567,000 of the 1.5 million American troops who have served so far have been discharged.

Former V.A. analyst Paul Sullivan of Veterans for America said if the current proportions held up over time, 400,000 returning service members could eventually apply for disability benefits. About 2.6 million veterans were receiving disability compensation as of 2005, according to the V.A. The largest group is from the Vietnam era. Of 1.1 million who served in the Middle East during the Persian Gulf war in 1991, 291,740 have been granted disability compensation.

A separate V.A. health care report shows that the most common treatments sought by recently discharged troops are for musculoskeletal disorders like back pain, followed by mental disorders, notably post traumatic stress disorder. About 30,000 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have sought treatment for post traumatic stress, which afflicts soldiers who have been under fire or in prolonged danger of attack.

3) Parties Trade Blame in Wake of Korea Claim
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/us/politics/11politics.html
North Korea’s claim that it detonated a nuclear device rippled through American politics Tuesday. Senator McCain sought to place the blame on former President Clinton. "I would remind Senator Clinton and other Democrats critical of the Bush administration’s policies that the framework agreement her husband’s administration negotiated was a failure," McCain said. McCain’s attack was part of a bitter partisan row over who was responsible for allowing North Korea to achieve nuclear ability.

Republicans sought to focus attention on what they said was a misguided and naïve policy of negotiating with North Korea during the 1990’s. Democrats pressed the argument that North Korea’s claimed advance was a byproduct of Bush’s decision to wage war against Iraq, which proved not to have any banned weapons, while doing too little to confront a real threat developing in North Korea.

At first blush, a nuclear test by North Korea is just the kind of development that would ordinarily work well for Republicans late in a campaign: a potential national security threat that highlights the dangers facing the US and spotlights the president’s role as commander in chief. But with polls showing deep dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, candidates and strategists in both parties said the news from North Korea could cut both ways.

Democrats have spent months saying Bush paid too much attention to Iraq, while ignoring threats like North Korea. Now, Democrats are saying "I told you so" to voters. But Republicans are offering an "I told you so" of their own, by spotlighting Democratic opposition to a missile defense system strongly backed by Bush.

4) North Korea Warns Against Tougher Sanctions
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/asia/12koreacnd.html
October 11, 2006
North Korea Warns U.S.; Japan Cuts Ties
By CHOE SANG-HUN and THOM SHANKER

North Korea warned today that it will regard increased pressure from the US as a "declaration of war" that will be met with "physical measures," as Japan announced tough new sanctions against the country. The new measures by Japan will bar North Korean ships from Japanese ports, cut off all imports of goods from North Korea and restrict the flow of travelers between the two countries, Japan’s cabinet secretary told reporters.

North Korea’s threats come a day after the US picked up crucial support from China, North Korea’s closest ally, which said that it would support punitive sanctions in response to Sunday’s blast, although not necessarily the measures the Bush administration is seeking. The country’s number two leader said a continued "hostile attitude" on the part of Washington could prompt more nuclear tests.

5) Rice Asserts U.S. Plans No Attack on North Korea
Thom Shanker & Warren Hoge, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/washington/11diplo.html
Secretary of State Rice said Tuesday the US did not intend to invade or attack North Korea, but she warned the North’s leaders that they now risked sanctions "unlike anything that they have faced before."

The US, Britain and France all want a resolution drafted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which makes sanctions mandatory and poses the possibility of military enforcement. While both China and Russia have spoken of the importance of taking serious action against North Korea’s reported nuclear test, they are traditionally against invoking Chapter VII and have not indicated whether they would end their opposition.

The US wants agreement on sanctions this week. But even as the administration sought to push tough language into a Security Council resolution, the White House expressed doubts about the capacity of North Korea’s nuclear program, based on evidence that the reported test had a smaller yield than expected.

Sanctions sought by the United States include international inspections of all cargo moving in and out of North Korea to detect weapons-related material. But that might prove difficult for China and Russia to accept, in part because their coastlines and borders would be affected.

6) Solving the Korean Stalemate, One Step at a Time
Jimmy Carter, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/opinion/11carter.html
One option, the most likely one, is to try to force Pyongyang’s leaders to abandon their nuclear program with military threats and a further tightening of the embargoes, increasing the suffering of its already starving people. Two important facts must be faced: Kim Jong-il and his military leaders have proven themselves almost impervious to outside pressure, and both China and South Korea have shown that they are reluctant to destabilize the regime. This approach is also more likely to stimulate further nuclear weapons activity.

The other option is to make an effort to put into effect the September denuclearization agreement, which the North Koreans still maintain is feasible. The simple framework for a step-by-step agreement exists, with the US giving a firm and direct statement of no hostile intent, and moving toward normal relations if North Korea forgoes any further nuclear weapons program and remains at peace with its neighbors. Each element would have to be confirmed by mutual actions combined with unimpeded international inspections.

It is unlikely that the North Koreans will back down unless the United States meets this basic demand. Washington’s pledge of no direct talks could be finessed through secret discussions with a trusted emissary like former Secretary of State Jim Baker, who earlier this week said, "It’s not appeasement to talk to your enemies."

7) Calm, Smart Diplomacy is Needed
Kevin Martin, Peace Action, Letter to the New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/opinion/l11korea.html
Expanding missile defenses, ending humanitarian aid to North Korea, expanding NATO and encouraging Japan to develop nuclear weapons are sure to isolate and anger North Korea and China and to destabilize the region, when what is needed is calm, smart diplomacy, which the Bush administration has shown zero aptitude for. North Korea’s nuclear test, while deplorable, is just the latest disaster in the administration’s failed, incoherent nonproliferation policy.

Iraq gets invaded over phantom nuclear weapons. Pakistan opens a veritable nuclear Wal-Mart and barely gets a slap on the wrist. India develops a nuclear bomb and gets rewarded with a deal for nuclear material and technology. Israel’s robust nuclear arsenal is winked at, while Iran is threatened with sanctions, bombing and regime change over its nuclear program, which is years away from weaponization, if its government actually wants that.

Iran
8) Major Powers to Discuss Iran Sanctions Wednesday
Reuters, October 10, 2006, Filed at 3:42 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-meeting.html
Major powers are to discuss a menu of sanctions on Wednesday that could be imposed against Iran for its refusal to abandon uranium enrichment, the State Department said Tuesday. Political directors from the US, China, Russia, Britain, France, and Germany would talk via video conference, said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

McCormack predicted discussions would begin "in earnest'' later this week on a U.N. sanctions resolution against Iran, but said the Security Council would likely act more swiftly against North Korea, which announced a nuclear test this week.

9) Iran Air to Get U.S.-Made Parts for Repairs
Reuters, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/washington/11plane.html
Despite pressing for UN sanctions against Iran, the Bush administration is considering allowing an American company to export spare parts to repair Iranian planes because of concern the planes are not safe, the State Department said Tuesday. None of the exports would go directly to Iran and all the repairs would be performed in third countries.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the Departments of State and Commerce told Congress on Friday of their intent to recommend a permit for the exports.
McCormack said the recommendation was based on a warning by the Federal Aviation Administration that calls for the "immediate overhaul" of some American-made turbines on Airbus jets operated by Iran Air.

Iraq
10) Iraq Pullout Resolution on Ballot
Question to appear in 139 communities
Jonathan Saltzman & David Abel, Boston Globe, Wednesday, October 11, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1011-05.htm
Voters in more than one-third of Massachusetts' cities and towns will get a rare chance to register their opinion on the war in Iraq next month when they consider a ballot question on whether the US should immediately withdraw all troops. The nonbinding question asks voters in all or parts of 139 municipalities whether their state representative should be instructed to vote in favor of a resolution calling on Bush and Congress to end the war and bring the soldiers home. AFSC, one of several groups that organized volunteers to collect signatures to get the question on ballots, said yesterday that more voters can consider the Nov. 7 ballot question than any other advisory policy issue in state history.

Israel
11) Israel Bars New Palestinian Students From Its Universities, Citing Concern Over Security
Dina Kraft, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/middleeast/11palestinians.html
Sawsan Salameh, a Palestinian from the West Bank, was thrilled to get a full scholarship from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem to begin a doctorate in theoretical chemistry. But a recent move by the Israeli Army to ban new Palestinian students from Israeli universities for security reasons is keeping her from studying at the campus, just two miles from her home. Salameh said that after she appealed six times to the Israeli government agency that handles Palestinian affairs, she decided to turn to the Supreme Court.

On Tuesday, Gisha, an Israeli group that is an advocate for Palestinian rights, submitted a petition on her behalf to the court, calling the ban illegal. "Gisha calls upon Israel not to prevent Palestinian students from studying just because they are Palestinian," said the group’s director, Sari Bashi. "No one should be denied access to education based on his or her national identity."

Hebrew University was the scene of a suicide bombing in July 2002, when a Palestinian blew himself up in a student cafeteria, killing seven people.

Like Salameh, most of the students came to Israel seeking doctorates because there are no doctoral programs at Palestinian universities. Palestinians who have money or receive fellowships tend to study abroad for doctorates. But for those without financial support it is an impossible dream, and women who come from traditional Muslim homes are often forbidden by their families to live abroad alone.

Dr. Suheil Ayesh is among the Palestinians who received a Ph.D. at Hebrew University. He is now a visiting professor of molecular biology and gene therapy there and divides his time between Jerusalem and Gaza. He is authorized to enter Israel only by permit, which he must renew every month. He is the only Palestinian professor teaching at an Israeli university, he said. Like many other Israeli and Palestinian academics, he is disheartened by the ban, which will make it difficult for future generations of Palestinians to do what he has been able to accomplish: get a quality education, forge ties with Israelis and contribute to a future Palestinian state. "It’s difficult and confusing," Ayesh said. "The physical distance between us is a very small one, and cooperation can be so helpful."

Dr. Raphael Levine, the Hebrew University chemistry professor who accepted Salameh as his student, said he understood the security concerns but was baffled by the ban. "I think it is in Israel’s interest to strengthen the Palestinian middle class, and strengthening academic institutions in Palestinian areas is one sure way of achieving that," he said. "There is a Jewish tradition in which value is put on learning; Ben-Gurion said he wanted Israel to be a shining light to all nations," he said. "You have to deliver on these things."

Lebanon
12) A New Fence Is Added to a Border Town Already Split
Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/middleeast/11lebanon.html
Little more than a week after Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon, the shiny new fence around the northern portion of the village of Ghajar is a reminder of the flash points that remain as Lebanon and Israel continue working to quell tensions across their border.

To Lebanese, the fence, erected over the past several weeks to separate the northern side of the village from the rest of Lebanon, amounts to a new occupation of their territory, potentially worsening tensions over the disputed Shabaa Farms area nearby. To Israel, which says the fence is only temporary, it is a means of ensuring that Hezbollah fighters do not enter the village, which straddles the border, and attack Israelis.

On Tuesday, the UN continued trying to broker an agreement ensuring that Israel would withdraw its troops from the northern section of the village and place it under UN control. But even if that happens, the fence itself might remain for some time, said a UN official. [What is odd about this otherwise informative article is that while it leads with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon as an accomplished fact, it informs us that the UN is trying to broker an agreement that Israel "withdraw its troops from the northern section of the village," i.e., from Lebanon. - JFP]

North Korea
13) Deep Insecurity Led Kim to Build Nuclear Program, Experts Say
Donald Greenlees, International Herald Tribune, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/11kimcnd.html
According to South Korean and Western experts, if a conventional war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the best the North Korean military could manage would be to fight to a bloody stalemate. It is deep insecurity, the experts say, and not any desire to grab attention or gain leverage, that drove President Kim Jong-il’s decision to defy international warnings and declare his country had tested a nuclear weapon.

"I think North Korea wants an effective deterrent against the U.S. in case of war on the Korean peninsula," said Park Yong Ok, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean army who served as vice minister for defense in the late 1990’s. "Kim Jong Il wants a nuclear weapon at hand. It’s not a bargaining chip."

The North's poor and outdated equipment and huge difficulties in maintaining combat readiness mean it is outgunned by the smaller forces of South Korea and the US troops stationed in the South. Until now, North Korea’s main deterrent against attack has been the 8,000 artillery pieces and 2,000 tanks it has positioned close to the demilitarized zone that separates North and South. Many of the guns have ranges long enough to reach Seoul, a city of 10.3 million people.

But military officials and analysts said the North closely watched conflicts elsewhere, particularly the invasions of Iraq in 1991 and 2003, and saw masses of tanks and artillery could be neutralized with ease by superior American military technology. So, the regime sought a new trump card to maintain the security standoff on the peninsula.

China
14) China Says It Will Back Sanctions On N. Korea
Beijing Stresses Limits on U.N. Action Against Ally
Colum Lynch and Maureen Fan
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 11, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR2006101000490.html
China Tuesday expressed a rare willingness to support U.N. sanctions against its ally North Korea, but it said any punitive action would have to be narrowly targeted at the country's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. The US and Japan continued to press the U.N. Security Council to support far stronger economic and trade measures that would permit international inspections of all North Korean cargo to search for weapons and to strangle Pyongyang's ability to finance its nuclear program.

The Bush administration sought to assuage fresh worries by its foreign counterparts that the tough strategy may cause hardship for the country's impoverished population or topple the government. France voiced concern that a Japanese proposal to ban all North Korean exports could fuel a humanitarian crisis. UN ambassador Bolton insisted the U.S. sanctions plan calls for the exemption of food, medicine and other humanitarian goods for civilians. State Department spokesman McCormack, meanwhile, specifically ruled out any attempt at regime change. "We have made it very clear that the US has no intention to attack North Korea. That element of our policy still stands," he told reporters. "What we have sought is a change in the behavior of the North Korean regime."

Haiti
15) Haiti: U.S. Partly Lifts Arms Embargo
Associated Press, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/americas/11briefs-007.html
The US has partly lifted a 15-year arms embargo against Haiti, the US Embassy said, allowing Haiti to buy weapons for police officers battling violent and often better armed street gangs. The move comes after the government of President Préval complained the embargo was hampering its ability to restore order and confront the gangs. The modified embargo allows the government to buy firearms, body armor and other items for the police. The policy change is seen as a vote of confidence in Préval.

OPEC
16) Hard Math in Oil Cuts Splits OPEC
Jad Mouawad, New York Times, October 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/business/worldbusiness/11oil.html
OPEC is finding that it is much easier to agree when prices rise than when they fall. OPEC ministers are still debating how to put a brake on falling oil prices, which have dropped nearly 25 percent since their high in mid-July. OPEC’s current president, the Nigerian oil minister, proposed that OPEC reduce production by a million barrels a day, from a nominal ceiling of 28 million barrels.

But instead of presenting a united front, OPEC’s 11 members have found it hard to agree on how quickly to act and how the cuts should be shared, confusing oil markets. In New York yesterday, the price of crude oil for November delivery dropped 2.4 percent, to an eight-month low of $58.52 a barrel, as traders questioned OPEC’s resolve.

OPEC is not homogenous but a collection of countries with divergent political and economic interests. As oil prices more than doubled, OPEC members found it easy to agree on a policy that resulted in windfall revenue for their governments. But with prices falling, consensus is fraying. Iran and Venezuela want to meet next week to endorse production cuts. Kuwait and Algeria have backed the proposal but disagree on how to apportion the cuts. The group’s most influential member, Saudi Arabia, has been silent. The Saudis are understood to support a production cut, but OPEC watchers say the country, which accounts for a third of OPEC’s output, wants to be discreet just weeks before midterm elections in the US.


Just Foreign Policy News
October 10, 2006

Summary:
U.S.
North Korea's apparently successful explosion of a small nuclear device Monday illuminates a failure of nearly two decades of atomic diplomacy, writes David Sanger in the New York Times.

The Bush administration rejected anew Tuesday direct talks with North Korea, AP reports.

The US proposed tough new UN sanctions on North Korea Monday. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, the US pressed for international inspections of all cargo moving into and out of North Korea, and a ban on all trading in military goods and services with the country. Russia and China, which have opposed tough sanctions, did not signal they were ready to go along with the American proposal.

North Korea’s government is too erratic, too brutal, and too willing to sell what it has built to have a nuclear bomb, writes the New York Times in an editorial. But there is no military solution.

US military commanders and civilian policy makers are refining plans for a blockade of North Korean shipments to prevent the sale of a completed bomb or nuclear components, the Times reports. Officers say Navy and Air Force equipment are already in the region, and more could be deployed rapidly.

Iran
The Bush Administration's rejection of security guarantees for Iran in exchange for suspending its uranium enrichment is counterproductive to any movement on the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, wrote Kevin Martin of Peace Action in a letter to the Washington Times. The Bush administration is clearly laying the groundwork for launching a military attack on Iran without explicit congressional or U.N. approval.

Iraq
The shift of U.S. troops from Western Iraq to Baghdad risks undermining previous gains in the west, AP reports. "We do not have sufficient troop strength to secure the entire country simultaneously," a military analyst said.

Palestine
Qatar, which has not traditionally played a major role in Palestinian affairs, tried Monday to revive negotiations on a national unity government between Fatah and Hamas.

China
North Korea’s action leaves Beijing little choice but to take a tougher approach, writes Joseph Kahn for the New York Times. But Chinese leaders still see highly punitive sanctions as unpalatable and counterproductive.

North Korea
The North Korean test appears to have been a nuclear detonation but was fairly small by traditional standards, and possibly a failure or a partial success, federal and private analysts said yesterday.

South Korea
South Korea warned Monday that it would "sternly deal" with North Korea’s announcement that it conducted a nuclear test, saying the action could lead to a "nuclear arms buildup" in the region. But its president suggested that he was not ready to give up yet on his country’s "sunshine policy" of engaging North Korea.

Burma
Burma is staying pretty much where it has been since the military quashed a pro-democracy uprising by force in 1988, the New York Times reports. It remains one of the poorest and most repressed nations in Asia.

Mexico
Leaders of protests trying to bring down a Mexican state governor they say is corrupt tentatively agreed late on Monday to scale back a months-old occupation of the tourist city of Oaxaca.

Contents:
U.S.
1) For U.S., a Strategic Jolt After North Korea’s Test
David E. Sanger, New York Times,  October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10assess.html
North Korea's apparently successful explosion of a small nuclear device Monday represents a defiant bid for survival and respect. For Washington and its allies, it illuminates a failure of nearly two decades of atomic diplomacy. North Korea is more than just another nation joining the nuclear club. It has never developed a weapons system it did not ultimately sell on the world market, and it has periodically threatened to sell its nuclear technology. So the end of ambiguity about its nuclear capacity foreshadows a very different era, in which the concern may not be where a nation’s warheads are aimed, but in whose hands its weapons and skill end up.

As Democrats were quick to note Monday, Bush and his aides never gave as much priority to countering a new era of proliferation as they did to overthrowing Saddam Hussein. Bush and his aides contend Iraq was the more urgent threat. But the North’s reported nuclear test now raises the question of whether it is too late for the president to make good on his promise that he would never let the world’s "worst dictators" obtain the world’s most dangerous weapons.

Until Monday the closest Bush came to drawing a red line for the North was in May 2003, when he declared the US and South Korea "will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea." The CIA's estimates since have been that the US has been tolerating exactly that. Notably, Bush did not repeat that threat Monday morning. Instead, he drew a new red line, one that appeared to tacitly acknowledge the North’s possession of weapons. The US would regard as a "grave threat," he said, any transfer by North Korea of nuclear material to other countries or terrorist groups, and would hold Kim’s government "fully accountable for the consequences of such actions."

To critics of Bush’s counterproliferation policy, this seemed a recognition that the North had successfully defied American, Chinese and Japanese warnings about building weapons and testing them, and was now simply trying to manage the aftermath. North Korea, it appears, is taking a page from Pakistan’s strategic playbook: it exploded its first nuclear device in 1998, endured three years of sanctions, and now has emerged as a "major non-NATO ally" of the US.

2) White House Rejects North Korea Talks
Associated Press, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-NKorea.html
The Bush administration rejected anew Tuesday direct talks with North Korea and said it would not be intimidated by a reported threat from Pyongyang that it could fire a nuclear-tipped missile unless the U.S. acts to resolve the standoff. The White House said, meanwhile, there is a ''remote possibility'' that the world never will be able to fully determine whether North Korea succeeded in conducting a nuclear test Monday.

North Korea stepped up its threats, saying it could fire a nuclear nuclear-tipped missile unless the U.S. acts to resolve the standoff, a news agency reported Tuesday. But even if Pyongyang has nuclear weapons, experts say it's unlikely the North has a bomb design small and light enough to be mounted atop a missile.

In response to North Korea's purported nuclear test, the US is pressing at the UN for stringent sanctions, including a trade ban on military and luxury items, the power to inspect all cargo entering or leaving the country, and freezing assets connected with its weapons programs.

Former UN ambassador Bill Richardson said the Bush administration should abandon its long-standing refusal to engage in direct talks with North Korea. He said Bush was right to seek sanctions in the U.N., but should next move to direct talks with the reclusive nation. Richardson echoed the message that former Secretary of State Baker said Sunday, as Baker urged the administration to talk directly to adversaries around the world.

The administration has refused one of North Korea's key demands: that the US engage in direct one-on-one talks. Instead the administration insists on sticking to the so-called six-party format, where Russia, China, South Korea and Japan have joined the US in talking to North Korea. Asked about the possibility of U.S. military action against North Korea, including a possible naval blockade, Bolton said, ''Well, we're not at that point yet.''

3) Bush Rebukes North Korea; U.S. Seeks New U.N. Sanctions
Warren Hoge & Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10korea.html
The US proposed tough new UN sanctions on North Korea on Monday after its reported test of a nuclear device, and Bush warned the North that he considered its activity a potential threat to American national security. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, the US pressed for international inspections of all cargo moving into and out of North Korea to detect weapons-related material, and a ban on all trading in military goods and services with the country.

Russia and China, which have veto power and have consistently opposed tough sanctions, did not signal that they were ready to go along with the American proposal. Britain, France and Japan said they were also pressing for strong sanctions, which the Council is expected to debate in the coming days.

Coming just a month before the November elections, North Korea’s reported test on Monday morning had immediate political ramifications. Democrats were already using their campaigns to argue that the Iraq war had made the United States less secure by diverting attention away from threats like North Korea; now they are using the North’s claim to hammer away at their theme.

Bush issued a pointed, albeit carefully worded, warning to the North not to export any nuclear technology it might have. In the past, North Korea has sold its weapons systems to other countries. "The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or nonstate entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States," Bush said. "And we would hold North Korea fully accountable of the consequences of such action."

4) North Korea and the Bomb
Editorial, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/opinion/10tue1.html
North Korea’s government is too erratic, too brutal, and too willing to sell what it has built to have a nuclear bomb. There is also no military solution, not least because intelligence experts haven’t a clue where Pyongyang has hidden its weapons labs or its stock of plutonium. It is a truism that no country that has tested a nuclear weapon has ever been pressured or cajoled into giving it up. But neither has any nuclear postulant been as vulnerable to outside pressure and bribery as this regime.

The Bush administration seems to want to impose limited sanctions on North Korea - and inspections of all cargo going into and out of the country - until it agrees to abandon its entire weapons program. We fear that won’t be enough to quickly change Pyongyang’s mind - while key players like China won’t sign on to never-ending punishments. We believe this must instead be a two-step process, starting with a Security Council-ordered ban on all trade, until the North agrees to stop expanding its arsenal. Pyongyang must be told that there will be no further attempt at negotiation until it halts all plutonium production, forswears additional tests and readmits UN inspectors.

The North Koreans are likely to back down only if China chokes off their oil supply and other essential trade. Until now Beijing has refused to use its enormous leverage, fearing that too much pressure could topple the North Korean government and unleash a mass of refugees over its border.

5) Pentagon Assesses Responses, Including a Possible Blockade
Thom Shanker, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10military.html

Now that North Korea seems to have made good on its threat with what appears to be a nuclear test, US military commanders and civilian policy makers are refining plans in the event that Bush orders a blockade of North Korean shipments to prevent the sale of a completed bomb or nuclear components. Senior officers say Navy and Air Force combat and surveillance equipment are already in the region, and more could be deployed rapidly.

Still, any unilateral effort by the US to cordon off North Korea by sea and air could founder along the country’s lengthy land border with China."This is a tough question," one senior official said Monday. "The only good options were before North Korea got the bomb. There are no good options now."

Many staff officers contend that North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs are not primarily intended as part of a plan for a land attack on South Korea. If anything, North Korea probably regards its effort to develop a nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against an attack by the US.

While land combat is not an imminent threat, Pentagon and military officials say, the prolonged deployments of ground forces in Iraq and Afghanistan have doubtless complicated planning for the Korean Peninsula.

Should more ground forces be required for South Korea, only a handful of combat brigades stand ready in the US, Pentagon and military officials say. To bolster the force, additional combat units now getting ready for tours in Iraq could be pointed to the Pacific instead, with troops already in Iraq staying there longer than planned.

Pentagon officials acknowledge that the sustained deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan have heightened the risks that would be faced if there were a Korean conflict because important equipment is committed to the Middle East.

Iran
6) Is Bush plotting war with Iran?
Kevin Martin, Peace Action, Letter, Washington Times,  
http://washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20061004-090354-4806r_page2.htm   
The Bush Administration's rejection of security guarantees for Iran in exchange for suspending its uranium enrichment is counterproductive to any movement on the standoff over Iran's nuclear program. Iran is being told that even if you do as we say and suspend uranium enrichment, we may bomb you or otherwise pursue 'regime change' anyway. Is it any wonder Iran is not capitulating to U.S. demands? Linking Iran with Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian militant groups is no accident. The Bush administration is clearly laying the groundwork for launching a military attack on Iran without explicit congressional or U.N. approval by blurring distinctions among these countries and organizations. If they can all be portrayed as enemies in the "war on terror," Bush could cite his authority to attack them in the name of prosecuting said "war" under previous congressional resolutions. So he could start a war on his own say-so.
   
Iraq
7) U.S. Gains in Parts of Iraq in Jeopardy
Antonio Castaneda, Associated Press, Monday, October 9, 2006; 2:28 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100900602.html
For months, soldiers from the 172nd Stryker Brigade fought in western Iraq, trying to clamp off the flow of foreign fighters and suicide bombers commanders said were terrorizing Baghdad. Now hundreds of these same U.S. soldiers have been sent to deal with what U.S. officials say is an even greater threat - attacks between Sunnis and Shiites in the capital. Left behind in Anbar province are fewer U.S. troops - and fears that hard-won gains could be in jeopardy from a Sunni Arab insurgency that is far from defeated.

"Seeing the fruits of your labor lost is frustrating," said Capt. David Ramirez, who was sent to Baghdad from western Iraq. The shift from Anbar to Baghdad underscores the problems facing the overstretched, 140,000-strong U.S. military force in Iraq. To secure Baghdad, the Army had to extend the tours of thousands of soldiers, including hundreds from the 172nd who had already returned home only to be shipped back to Iraq.

"We do not have sufficient troop strength to secure the entire country simultaneously," Andrew Krepinevich, a military analyst, told AP. "Trying to be strong everywhere will lead us to being strong nowhere."

Palestine
8) Qatar Emerges as a Mediator Between Fatah and Hamas
Greg Myre, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/middleeast/10mideast.html
Qatar, which has not traditionally played a major role in Palestinian affairs, tried Monday to revive negotiations on a national unity government between Fatah and Hamas. In Gaza Monday, Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheik Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, shuttled between the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, of Fatah, and Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, of Hamas. The Qatari diplomat was seeking to bring the Palestinian leaders back into face-to-face negotiations that fell apart after a tentative agreement was reached last month to form a united government. Until last week, Egypt was the main Arab mediator in the bitter rivalry between Hamas and Fatah.  Qatar’s role began to emerge when Abbas and the exiled Hamas political leader, Khaled Meshal, both turned up in Qatar. Both reportedly held talks with Qatari officials, including the foreign minister, who presented a six-point plan for the Palestinian unity government.

China
9) Angry China Is Likely to Toughen Its Stand on Korea
Joseph Kahn, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10china.html
North Korea has had increasingly testy relations with China in recent years. But it was not until Monday, moments after North Korea apparently exploded a nuclear device, that China accused it of a "brazen" violation of its international commitments. The wording is one indication that a nuclear test would cross a red line for China, which has devoted years of painstaking diplomatic effort, and staked its delicate relationship with the US, on the premise that it could deliver a peaceful, negotiated solution to the nuclear standoff with North Korea.

That policy, Chinese analysts say, seems to have failed, and North Korea’s action leaves Beijing little choice but to take a tougher approach. But Chinese leaders still see highly punitive sanctions as unpalatable and counterproductive, and the country’s elite remains sharply divided over how far to distance China from its neighbor, and how closely to embrace the Bush administration, several senior Chinese foreign policy experts said.

“China is disappointed and angry and will be willing to support stronger sanctions,” said Jin Canrong, a foreign policy expert at People’s University in Beijing. “But I think that is different from saying there will be a drastic change.” The reason there is unlikely to be a major policy change, experts said, is that North Korea has sharply increased tensions without fundamentally changing China’s calculation of its national interests.

Its priorities remain, first and foremost, promoting internal economic development,. China’s leaders concluded long ago that generating high growth in its gross domestic product required a benign relationship with the world’s major powers, secure borders and open markets - in a word, stability. China would like to achieve a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula but has shown few signs of accepting war or a forced change of government as an acceptable way to achieve that goal.

North Korea
10) Blast May Be Only a Partial Success, Experts Say
William J. Broad & Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10detect.html
The North Korean test appears to have been a nuclear detonation but was fairly small by traditional standards, and possibly a failure or a partial success, federal and private analysts said yesterday. Throughout history, the first detonations of aspiring nuclear powers have tended to pack the destructive power of 10,000 to 60,000 tons - 10 to 60 kilotons - of conventional high explosives. But the strength of the North Korean test appears to have been a small fraction of that: around a kiloton or less, according to scientists monitoring the global arrays of seismometers that detect faint trembles in the earth from distant blasts.

South Korea
11) Tough Talk From Seoul, if Little Will for a Fight
Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10seoul.html
South Korea warned Monday that it would "sternly deal" with North Korea’s announcement that it conducted a nuclear test, saying the action could lead to a "nuclear arms buildup" in the region. But President Roh Moo-hyun suggested that he was not ready to give up yet on his country’s "sunshine policy" of engaging North Korea.

Roh said South Korea "has lost ground in arguing for dialogue" against calls for stronger punitive measures, including economic sanctions, against North Korea. Tuesday morning, Roh went further by saying "a reconsideration of our engagement policy is needed." The government’s response to the nuclear test was firmer and quicker than its reaction to North Korea’s missile launchings in early July. Still, there was some ambiguity in his remarks, and experts in South Korea remained divided Monday over whether a nuclear test would simply re-emphasize the hard reality that the policy of engagement is the lesser of evils in dealing with its unpredictable neighbor.

Burma
12) Bold Gestures on Myanmar Only Underscore Stagnation and Other Troubles
Seth Mydans, International Herald Tribune, October 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10burma.html
In Myanmar this week, the generals are reconvening a seemingly endless convention that has been working, on and off, for 13 years to draw up a constitution. They portray the meeting as a start on their "road map to democracy." The United States succeeded in September in placing Myanmar’s human rights record on the agenda of the UN Security Council. American diplomats call Myanmar a threat to international peace and security.

The statements by the two countries should not be taken literally. A consensus among experts on its years of stagnation and repression is that Myanmar, an isolated Southeast Asian nation, is neither heading toward democracy nor threatening world peace.

Instead, Burma is staying pretty much where it has been since the military quashed a pro-democracy uprising by force in 1988. It remains one of the poorest and most repressed nations in Asia. Its rulers feint and promise and hunker down; its critics recite its transgressions and impose economic sanctions; little changes. Local opponents of the government are arrested, released and arrested again, and promises to free the pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi are made and then broken. She has spent 11 of the past 17 years under house arrest.

Mexico
13) Tentative Deal Reached to End Mexico Oaxaca Crisis
Greg Brosnan & Noel Randewich, Reuters, October 10, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1010-04.htm
Leaders of protests trying to bring down a Mexican state governor they say is corrupt tentatively agreed late on Monday to scale back a months-old occupation of the tourist city of Oaxaca. After thousands of protesters marched for days to get to Mexico City, the government and leaders of a teachers union said they made a deal that could see the protesters cede control of most of downtown Oaxaca to local police under federal supervision.

Leftist activists and striking teachers have shut down the colonial center of Oaxaca for four months, hoping to force the resignation of Gov. Ulises Ruiz, who they accuse of corruption, heavy-handed tactics and ignoring widespread poverty. Union leader Enrique Rueda said he agreed to consult the strikers about removing most street barricades in the city and returning to classes but said they would continue to push the Senate to make Ruiz step down.  "Since Ulises Ruiz Ortiz is still there, the conflict has not ended," Rueda said. As part of the tentative agreement, the government agreed to release protesters who were jailed in recent months and steadily raise teachers' pay in coming years, Rueda said.

Thousands of protesters had walked the 280 miles from Oaxaca City. They arrived at the outskirts of Mexico City Monday. Protesters set up camp outside the Senate. Senators will decide whether or not Ruiz has lost control of Oaxaca state and needs to step down.

In Oaxaca City's central square, protesting teachers were surprised at the terms of the deal. "This is bad because what we want most is for Ulises to be removed, not so much the salary raise," said teacher Benito Santiago.

Just Foreign Policy News
October 9, 2006

Summary:
U.S.
In a tendentious article with a misleading headline, the New York Times reported Saturday on Bush Administration claims to have won an agreement from other permanent members of the UN Security Council to "seek sanctions against Iran over its refusal to shut down a nuclear enrichment program that could be used to build bombs." The headline was "U.S. Cites Deal With U.N. Members to Punish Iran." In standard American English, one typically "cites" things that are generally acknowledged to be true, factual, or legitimate, like the Second Law of Thermodynamics or one's First Amendment rights. One "claims" things that are in dispute. As one reads further into the article, it becomes clear that what the U.S. can "cite" is an agreement to discuss sanctions, not an agreement to impose them.

James Baker, co-chair of the Iraq Study Group, said he expected the panel would depart from Bush’s calls to "stay the course," and suggested the White House enter direct talks with Iran and Syria. "I believe in talking to your enemies," he said. His comments offered a glimmer of what members of his study group have described as an effort to find a face-saving way for Bush to extract the US from the war.

Luis Posada Carriles, a Cuban exile accused in a plot to blow up a civilian Cuban airplane that resulted in 73 deaths, presents a quandary for the Bush administration, the New York Times reports. Posada may soon go free because the US has been reluctant to press the terrorism charges that could keep him in jail.

Momentum is growing for state governments to divest public funds from companies, mostly foreign-based, doing business with Sudan, the Washington Post reports.

A debate on the role of the Israeli lobby in U.S. foreign policy involving prominent academics and former high-level U.S. and Israeli officials is now viewable on the web. Juan Cole characterizes press coverage of the event as a "virtual news blackout."

Iran
A senior cleric who opposes religious rule in Iran and a number of his followers were arrested Sunday after clashes with police, Iranian news agencies reported. Ayatollah Boroujerdi said he had written to world leaders seeking protection and asking them "to make efforts to spread traditional religion," separate from politics. "I believe people are fed up with political religion and want traditional religion to return," he said.

Iraq
Three and a half years after the American invasion, the violence that has disfigured much of Iraqi society is hitting young Iraqis in new ways, the New York Times reports. Young people say their lives have shrunk to the size of their bedrooms and their dreams have been packed away and largely forgotten.

American and Iraqi troops fought a fierce battle Sunday with militants in Diwaniya, a stronghold of militia members loyal to Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, the US military said. The skirmish was the third serious clash between American or Iraqi soldiers against members of the Mahdi Army in Diwaniya in less than two months.

The number of U.S troops wounded in Iraq surged to its highest monthly level in nearly two years last month, the Washington Post reports, as 776 U.S. troops were wounded in action in Iraq. Experts say the number of wounded is a better gauge of the fierceness of fighting than combat deaths because advances in armor and medical care now allow many to survive who would have perished in past wars. The ratio of wounded to killed among U.S. forces in Iraq is about 8 to 1, compared with 3 to 1 in Vietnam.

In southern Baghdad, American troops increasingly ask themselves if this is their fight anymore, and who is the enemy, NBC News reports.

Israel
There are two reasons Israel won't make peace with Syria now, writes veteran Israeli journalist and peace activist Uri Avnery. One is domestic: the 20,000 Israeli settlers living in the occupied Golan Heights, which Israel would have to give back as part of a peace deal. The second is that President Bush wouldn't like it. A true Israeli patriot, Avnery suggests, would try to make peace with Syria if it is in Israel's interest, whether the US likes it or not.

Yemen
The election in Yemen was a victory for Abdelrahman al-Marwani, who leads an anti-violence campaign in Yemen, the New York Times reports, not because of how people voted but because only eight people were killed. In part due to the efforts of his organization, that number was down from 67 in the 2001 election.

Afghanistan
NATO's top commander in Afghanistan said Sunday the country was at a tipping point and warned Afghans would likely switch their allegiance to resurgent Taliban militants if there are no visible improvements in people's lives in the next six months.

Russia
Hundreds of Russians attended a rally in Moscow Sunday to commemorate a veteran journalist who was murdered Saturday, apparently in retaliation for her exposure of human rights abuses by the Russian government in Chechnya.

North Korea
North Korea's apparent nuclear test may be regarded as a failure of the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation policy, the Washington Post reports. But senior U.S. officials have said they would welcome a North Korean test as a clarifying event that would end the debate within the Bush administration about whether to solve the problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed to destabilize the North Korean government.

Illegitimate Debt
Anti-debt campaigners are hailing Monday's decision by Norway to cancel $80 million in debt after it determined the loans were not intended to promote development, Inter Press Service reports. The IPS reporter notes that Norway's action "broke ranks" with other creditors, who have refused to acknowledge that much of the international debt owed by poor countries is illegitimate. Remarkably, the IPS article referred to the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the "Paris Club" group of creditor nations as being part of a "creditors' cartel." What is remarkable about this characterization is that it is so accurate. It's a safe bet this reporter will never get a job at the New York Times.

Contents:
U.S.
1) U.S. Cites Deal With U.N. Members to Punish Iran
Philip Shenon, New York Times, October 7, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/07/world/middleeast/07iran.html
The US said it had won agreement on Friday from the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany to seek sanctions against Iran over its refusal to shut down a nuclear enrichment program that could be used to build bombs.

While the State Department praised the agreement American diplomats conceded that there could still be long and difficult negotiations over what penalties to impose and their timing.

Indeed, none of the other nations issued such an explicit statement after the meeting. In the past, China and Russia have both said they would be wary of sanctions against Iran, despite its defiance of international demands to end nuclear enrichment.

Nicholas Burns, American under secretary of state for political affairs, said whatever the other nations’ diplomatic language, "What we’ve got is an agreement to go to the Security Council" to punish Iran.

In essence, Burns said, the six nations "concluded that Iran is not prepared to negotiate with us” based on conditions set last spring, and that "we’ll go forward with sanctions."

But he admitted the issue was far from decided. "I think there’s going to be a spirited debate about what kind of sanctions should be agreed to."

Burns was the senior American negotiator at the talks for the most of the day because Secretary of State Rice was delayed when her military jet developed mechanical problems.

The German foreign minister may have come closest to the American statement when he told ZDF television on Friday that “if there is no new decision from inside the Iranian leadership, there is at present no alternative to having the Security Council deal with this conflict.”

Agence France-Presse quoted the French foreign minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, as saying that the six nations have "decided, in a unified manner, to work together in the next few days to speak about proportionate and reversible sanctions."

2) G.O.P.’s Baker Hints Iraq Plan Needs Change
David E. Sanger, New York Times, October 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/middleeast/09baker.html
James Baker, the Republican co-chair of a bipartisan panel reassessing Iraq strategy for President Bush, said Sunday he expected the panel would depart from Bush’s calls to "stay the course," and strongly suggested the White House enter direct talks with countries it had kept at arm’s length, including Iran and Syria. "I believe in talking to your enemies," he said, noting he made 15 trips to Damascus while serving as secretary of state. "You don’t give away anything, but in my view, it’s not appeasement to talk to your enemies."

The "Iraq Study Group," created by Baker last March with the encouragement of some members of Congress to come up with new ideas on Iraq strategy, has already talked to some representatives of Iran and Syria about Iraq’s future, he said. His comments offered the first glimmer of what other members of his study group have described as an effort to find a face-saving way for Bush to extract the US from the war. "I think it’s fair to say our commission believes that there are alternatives between the stated alternatives … of 'stay the course' and 'cut and run,' " Baker said.

He rejected a rapid withdrawal from Iraq, saying that would invite Iran, Syria and "even our friends in the gulf" to fill the power vacuum. He dismissed as unworkable a proposal by Senator Biden to decentralize Iraq and give the country’s three major groups their own regions, distributing oil revenue to all. Baker said he had concluded "there’s no way to draw lines" in Iraq’s major cities, where ethnic groups are intermingled.

According to White House officials and commission members, Baker has been talking to Bush and national security adviser Hadley on a regular basis. They say he is unlikely to issue suggestions the president has not tacitly approved in advance. Those proposals - which he has said must be both bipartisan and unanimous - could give Bush some political latitude to adopt strategies he had once rejected, like setting deadlines for a phased withdrawal of American forces.

It was notable that Baker joined the growing number of Republicans who are trying to create some space between themselves and the White House. On Sunday Baker was shown a video of Senator Warner, who said last week Iraq was "drifting sideways" and urged consideration of a "change of course" if the Iraqi government could not restore order in two or three months. The American ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, has offered a similar warning. Asked if he agreed with that timetable, Baker said, "Yes, absolutely. And we’re taking a look at other alternatives.” [Of course, the ambassador is a Bush Administration official, so this "distance" takes on the appearance of something orchestrated, perhaps to suggest to voters that after the election there will be a change of course, even Republicans are returned to power -JFP.]

Members of the study group have privately expressed concern that within months, whatever course the group recommended could be overtaken by the chaos in Iraq. "I think the big question is whether we can come up with something before it’s too late," one member said last month. "There’s a real sense that the clock is ticking, that Bush is desperate for a change, but no one in the White House can bring themselves to say so with this election coming."

It was a measure of how much the situation had deteriorated that only one member of the group, former Senator Robb, ventured beyond the protected walls of the Green Zone.

Friday,. Biden said he thought he saw "heads nodding up and down" about his ideas on creating autonomous regions of the country, but Baker made clear on Sunday that he was not among them. "Experts on Iraq have suggested that, if we do that, that in itself will trigger a huge civil war because the major cities in Iraq are mixed," Baker said.

Baker has been critical of how the Bush administration conducted post-invasion operations, and he has not backed away from statements in his 1995 memoir, in which he described opposing the ouster of Saddam Hussein in 1991. He had said he feared such action might lead to a civil war, "even if Saddam were captured and his regime toppled, American forces would still be confronted with the specter of a military occupation of indefinite duration to pacify the country and sustain a new government."

3) Castro Foe Puts U.S. in an Awkward Spot
Marc Lacey, New York Times, October 8, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/world/americas/08posada.html
Cubana Airlines Flight 455 crashed off the coast of Barbados on Oct. 6, 1976, killing all 73 people aboard. Plastic explosives ignited the plane. Implicated in the attack was Luis Posada Carriles, a Cuban exile. Posada is in detention in El Paso, held on an immigration violation. His case presents a quandary for the Bush administration, in part because Posada is a former C.I.A. operative who directed his wrath at a government that Washington has long opposed. Despite insistent calls from Cuba and Venezuela for his extradition, the administration has refused to send him to either country for trial.

Posada may soon go free because the US has been reluctant to press the terrorism charges that could keep him in jail. That has brought criticism of the Bush administration for a double standard for those who commit terrorist acts. "The fight against terrorism cannot be fought à la carte," said José Pertierra, a lawyer representing the government of Venezuela in its effort to extradite Posada. "A terrorist is a terrorist."

The Bush administration has stopped short of prosecuting him as a terrorist, however, even though the Justice Department called him as much this week. In court papers, it described him as "an unrepentant criminal and admitted mastermind of terrorist plots and attacks on tourist sites." Instead, Posada faces immigration charges, as the Bush administration tries its best to deport him somewhere else, where he would walk free.

Canada, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Panama have all turned down American requests to take Posada, who denies he bombed the plane but is linked to the case in declassified C.I.A. and F.B.I. files. Two countries want Posada: Venezuela, where he is wanted for blowing up the plane, and Cuba, where he is viewed as an enemy who has repeatedly tried to assassinate Castro.

The Bush administration is now invoking a law that bars the release of an illegal immigrant who poses adverse foreign policy consequences for the US. That tack has placed it in the awkward position of having to call Posada a terrorist even as it refuses to charge him as one.

4) Sudan Divestment Effort Gains Momentum at State Level
Nora Boustany, Washington Post, Saturday, October 7, 2006; A12
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/06/AR2006100601583.html
Momentum is growing for state governments to divest public funds from companies, mostly foreign-based, doing business with Khartoum. In a victory for business lobbyists, Congress approved a Sudan sanctions bill stripped of language that would have endorsed states' rights to pass divestment laws. The National Foreign Trade Council, representing more than 300 multinational companies, had lobbied aggressively against the provision on state investments inserted by the House during its consideration of the bill last year.

A divestment movement, however, appears to be gaining momentum across the country, with active campaigns on university campuses and at city and state levels. Six states have already passed divestment laws: Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey and California. Lawmakers in many states are pushing for divestment bills, according to the Sudan Divestment Task Force.

Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Washington could consider some form of legislation early next year, according to the task force.

5) Debate: The Israeli Lobby: Does it Have Too Much Influence on US Foreign Policy?, Cooper Union, New York City, October 3, 2006
Recorded by ScribeMedia for the London Review of Books
Panelists: John Mearsheimer, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago.
Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Israeli foreign and security minister
Martin Indyk, Saban Center, Brookings Institution.
Tony Judt, Professor in European Studies, New York University.
Rashid Khalidi, Professor of Arab Studies, Columbia University.
Dennis Ross, Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
http://blog.scribestudio.com/articles/2006/10/03/the-israeli-lobby-does-it-have-too-much-influence-on-us-foreign-policy
Juan Cole writes in his blog: There was a virtual news blackout on the debate. Despite the widespread interest sparked by the Mearsheimer and Walt article on the Israel lobby in the London Review of Books last spring, no major news outlet bothered to cover this important debate, nor was it on C-Span.

Iran
6) Iran Arrests Outspoken Cleric Who Opposes Religious Rule
Nazila Fathi, New York Times, October 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/middleeast/09iran.html
A senior cleric who opposes religious rule of Iran and a number of his followers were arrested Sunday after clashes with the riot police, news agencies reported. About 1,000 supporters of the cleric, Ayatollah Mohammad Kazemeni Boroujerdi, gathered outside his home Saturday, the semiofficial ILNA news agency reported. They were there apparently to protect him from arrest and to protest the arrests over the past month of other supporters who had tried to protect him after a court had summoned him.

News reports quoted officials saying members of the crowd came armed with knives and daggers, and the reports said riot police dispersed them with tear