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Friday, July 21

Dennis Kucinich introduced a resolution (H. Con. Res. 450) "calling upon the President to appeal to all sides in the current crisis in the Middle East for an immediate cessation of violence and to commit United States diplomats to multi-party negotiations with no preconditions." The text is here. There are more than 20 cosponsors To ask your representative to cosponsor, you can use this link.

Sen. Joe Lieberman is narrowly trailing his challenger for the first time in their race for the Democratic nomination, a poll released Thursday shows. Businessman Ned Lamont had support from 51 percent and Lieberman from 47 percent of likely Democratic voters in the latest Quinnipiac University poll — a slight Lamont lead, given the survey's sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Liberals have criticized Lieberman for his support of the Iraq war and other moves perceived to support congressional Republicans and Bush.

Israel called up a few thousand reservists in possible preparation for a more extensive ground operation in southern Lebanon, as its warplanes continued to hit targets there and to drop leaflets warning residents of villages to leave their homes and head northward.
Over the last two days, there has been an increase in ground clashes as Israeli troops have moved about a mile or so inside Lebanon to demolish Hezbollah outposts and fortifications.

Lebanon’s defense minister said on Thursday that the Lebanese Army — which has so far remained on the sidelines — would go into battle if Israel invaded: “The Lebanese army will resist and defend the country and prove that it is an army worthy of respect.”

Lebanon’s prime minister Siniora said that no settlement was in sight to end the violence. He accused the United States of giving Israel a green light to bomb Lebanon. “The United States is allowing Israel to pursue its aggression,” he told Agence France-Presse.

On Thursday UN Secretary General Annan called for an immediate ceasefire and spoke of the human suffering caused by the offensive, which has displaced hundreds of thousands of Lebanese from their homes. He proposed that Hezbollah release the two soldiers, that attacks by both sides be halted and that an international peacekeeping force be deployed. And he condemned the Israeli operation as an “excessive use of force.”

Diplomats are investigating the idea of creating a more robust international peacekeeping force than the current, largely ineffectual Unifil force, which has occupied a narrow strip along the Lebanese-Israeli border for decades. The new force would be under United Nations auspices, but made up largely of European troops, and would help the weak Lebanese government move its army to the Israeli border and push back a weakened Hezbollah.

The Lebanese government said it had so far sheltered as many as 120,000 refugees, mostly in schools. It is considering setting up tents and temporary barracks in public parks and sports fields. The United Nations estimates that a total of 500,000 people have been displaced, on in eight of Lebanon's population of 4 million.

On the West Bank, Israeli forces continued to surround the Mukata compound in Nablus, where Palestinians wanted by Israel have been taking refuge since Wednesday morning. Tanks fired five shells at the buildings and army bulldozers worked to knock down the exterior walls, while warning those inside to come out or risk being buried underneath the rubble. Israeli troops fired rubber-coated bullets at Palestinians who demonstrated against the troops, wounding five, one seriously, Palestinian medics said.

The U.N. Security Council risks committing "a historic act of tyranny'' against Iran if it passes a resolution demanding Tehran stop making nuclear fuel, powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said on Friday. U.N. Security Council permanent members are wrangling over the text of a draft resolution that includes the threat of sanctions if Iran fails to halt making enriched uranium. "They are going to commit another historic act of tyranny against Iran, despite Iran announcing several times that it is ready to negotiate,'' he said. He said it would be humiliating for Iran to end its domestic nuclear fuel cycle, which it says it needs to run nuclear power stations. "If Iran accepts, that would mean putting our hands up and surrendering,'' he continued. Former President Rafsanjani heads the powerful Expediency Council, Iran's main legislative arbitration body.

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton said on Wednesday major powers disagreed about how to make legally binding demands that Iran suspend enrichment and stop work on a reactor that can produce plutonium. Russia and China, both of which have opposed sanctions, have raised questions in informal talks about the draft resolution backed by Western nations. The drafts looks to set a date, possibly by the end of August, for Iran to comply. The United States has consistently declined to rule out military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Key European nations circulated a draft U.N. Security Council resolution Thursday that would put the threat of sanctions, but not force, behind demands that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and clear up suspicions about its nuclear program. If Iran does not comply, the draft states, the council will follow up under Article 41 of Chapter 7 in the U.N. Charter, which allows punishments that do not involve military action, such as economic sanctions, banning air travel or breaking diplomatic relations. The draft, proposed by Britain, France, Germany and backed by the U.S., would make mandatory earlier demands from the council that Iran stop uranium enrichment. The U.S. had hoped to have the Security Council pass the resolution by the end of this week, but that seemed unlikely because diplomats were occupied with the Lebanon crisis. In addition, there was no indication that a split with Russia had been bridged. Russia had circulated a counterproposal Wednesday that stripped much of the tough language from the draft. Western powers presented their version to the full council anyway.

Russia's U.N. Ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, indicated on Wednesday that Moscow was in no rush to get a resolution passed but said Russia wanted an answer sometime soon to the package of incentives, put forward on June 5. Churkin stressed the council is not trying to push Tehran to suspend enrichment. ''We are not in a rush at all,'' Churkin said. ''We do not want to ambush Iran in any way. We're very much in a negotiating political mode. We do not want to dictate things to Iran.''

Iran promised again on Thursday to respond to an international package of incentives on Aug. 22 but warned that it would reconsider its position if its case was sent to the United Nations Security Council. The announcement was in a statement issued by Iran’s National Security Council. The council is led by Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani.

Bush's unwillingness to pressure Israel to halt its military campaign is rooted in a view of the Middle East sharply different from his predecessors, the Washington Post reports. When hostilities have broken out in the past, the usual U.S. response has been immediate diplomacy aimed at a cease-fire to avoid escalation. But now the administration is content to see the Israelis inflict the maximum damage possible on Hezbollah. The U.S. position represents a shift away from a more traditional view that the U.S. plays an "honest broker's" role in the Middle East. In the new view, the conflict is an opportunity to seriously degrade a big threat in the region. Many Mideast experts warn that there is a dangerous consequence to this worldview. They believe that Israel, and the United States by extension, is risking serious trouble if it continues with air strikes that are producing mounting casualties. The history of the Middle East is replete with examples of the limits of military power, they say, noting how the Israeli campaign in Lebanon in the early 1980s helped create the conditions for the rise of Hezbollah. They warned that the military campaign is turning mainstream Lebanese public opinion against Israel rather than against Hezbollah. "There needs to be a signal that the Bush administration is prepared to do something," said Larry Garber, executive director the New Israel Fund, which pushes for civil rights and justice in Israel. "Taking a complete hands-off, casual-observer position undermines our credibility. . . . There is a danger that we will be seen as simply doing Israel's bidding." Robert Malley, who handled Middle East issues on the NSC for Clinton, voiced skepticism about whether the current course would pay off for either Israel or the United States. "Hezbollah could emerge with its dignity intact and much of its political and military arsenal still available," said Malley, who monitors the region for the International Crisis Group. "What will you have gained?"

The Israeli public, while so far largely supportive of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's war effort, has been generally less tolerant of ground operations since Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and the bloody 18-year occupation that followed, the Washington Post notes. Amos Yaron, a retired general, said "We didn't have any problem entering Lebanon in 1982…The problem was leaving it."

The United States said on Thursday Iran had attended North Korean missile tests this month, increasing U.S. concern about ties between two countries Washington accuses of having secret nuclear weapons programmes.U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill said one or more Iranian representatives witnessed July 4 missile tests in North Korea.
Asked at a U.S. Senate hearing about reports Iranians witnessed the North Korean tests, Hill said: "Yes, that is my understanding."

In a statement published on her Congressional website, Detroit Congresswoman Kilpatrick called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. The President must send a strong signal that the United States does not condone the ongoing loss of innocent civilian lives, she said.

A letter in the Washington Post noted that claims that Mexico has had "two full tallies" of its July 2 presidential vote are incorrect. Both the initial count on the day of the vote and the so-called 'recount' -- were of precinct results, not of actual ballots. There has been no centralized count of the ballots themselves, as López Obrador, who is disputing the precinct tally, is calling for.

Thursday, July 20

The United Nations high commissioner for human rights, Louise Arbour, said what is happening in Lebanon might amount to war crimes. “The scale of the killings in the region, and their predictability, could engage the personal criminal responsibility of those involved, particularly those in a position of command and control,” she said. Arbour is a former war crimes prosecutor.

Homes in southern Lebanon received taped phone calls in Arabic warning that they needed to evacuate because strikes would hit house by house. The recording ended by saying it came from the Israeli Army. The Israelis also used a radio station near the border to broadcast warnings into southern Lebanon for residents to leave.

Congressional Republicans are shifting their message on the Iraq war from speaking optimistically of progress to acknowledging the difficulty of the mission and pointing up mistakes in planning and execution, the Washington Post reports. Shays vents criticism of the White House's war strategy and new estimates of the monetary cost of the war. Gutknecht, once a strong supporter of the war, returned from Iraq this week declaring that conditions in Baghdad were far worse "than we'd been led to believe" and urging that troop withdrawals begin immediately. Republican lawmakers acknowledge that it is no longer tenable to say the news media are ignoring the good news in Iraq and painting an unfair picture of the war. The evolving Republican message on the war contrasts with the strong rhetoric used by House and Senate Republicans recently in opposing a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq. During a debate last month, Gutknecht intoned, "Members, now is not the time to go wobbly." This week, he conceded "I guess I didn't understand the situation."

At the United Nations the United States opposed a French proposal for a Security Council resolution calling for a lasting cease-fire in Lebanon. Rice will travel to the United Nations to discuss with Secretary General Annan Israeli demands for a 12-mile buffer zone in southern Lebanon. There is talk of putting international troops in that zone and along the Syrian border to prevent the import of more rockets from Syria and Iran.

Iran on Thursday again rejected international calls for it to scrap nuclear fuel production and accused the United States of trying to obstruct a diplomatic solution to its atomic dispute with the West. Iran's chief nuclear negotiator made the statement as the U.N. Security Council wrangles over a resolution to make legally binding demands that Tehran halt uranium enrichment.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security decision-making body, said Thursday it would formally respond on Aug. 22 to a Western package of incentives aimed at resolving the standoff over its nuclear program. A senior Iranian lawmaker said Tuesday the country's parliament was preparing to debate withdrawal from the nonproliferation treaty if the U.N. Security Council adopts a resolution that would force Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment. Withdrawal from the treaty could end all international oversight of Iran's nuclear program.

Russia is prepared to back a United Nations resolution giving Iran a deadline to respond to a package of incentives on its nuclear program, its Foreign Minister said Thursday.
But he did not say if Russia would support imposing sanctions on Iran if it failed to comply. The draft under consideration in the U.N. would make it mandatory for Iran to suspend enrichment and includes threats of sanctions if it does not comply. Lavrov did not say if Russia would back that draft. The will set a date, possibly by the end of August, for Iran to comply.

Fighting raged between Israelis and Palestinians in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, with 13 Palestinians killed in a series of Israeli raids. “We have a forgotten war in Gaza and the West Bank,” said Saab Erekat, a Palestinian legislator and frequent spokesman. “We urge the international community to offer direct intervention to stop this Israeli military escalation.”

American military analysts caution that Israel may be unable to disarm a shadowy guerrilla army by missiles, bombs and long-range artillery alone, the New York Times reports. Small numbers of Israeli commandos already have entered Lebanon, senior Israeli officials acknowledged Wednesday, and more ground forces may be sent in.
But the Israeli military campaign is intertwined with another goal aimed at the Lebanese government and civilian population. “They want to turn the Lebanese people…against Hezbollah,” said Theodore Kattouf, former American ambassador to Syria. “I think they are quite misguided...These attacks are, if anything, making people feel somewhat less hostile to Hezbollah and more convinced in their dislike of Israel.”

Iraq's Prime Minister on Wednesday forcefully denounced the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. “Israeli attacks and airstrikes are completely destroying Lebanon’s infrastructure,” Maliki said. “I condemn these aggressions and call on the Arab League foreign ministers’ meeting in Cairo to take quick action to stop these aggressions. We call on the world to take quick stands to stop the Israeli aggression.”

Tens of thousands of Shiite Muslims fleeing southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs have taken refuge in the city's Christian and Sunni quarters in recent days. The sudden influx of so many displaced Shiites, many of whom support the militant group Hezbollah, threatens to upset Lebanon's sectarian balance. For the first time in decades of conflict, Shiite refugees have had to take shelter in neighbourhoods where many residents oppose Hezbollah. Israeli offensives in southern Lebanon have displaced Shiites many times over the last 30 years, but they've always taken refuge in the largely Shiite suburbs of south Beirut. But now, both the South and the southern suburbs are under Israeli fire and the Shiites must flee into the city itself. Nobody knows is exactly how many people have been displaced, but it is clear that a humanitarian crisis looms ahead.

The International Committee of the Red Cross and other international aid agencies cited growing concern over the number of Lebanese civilians being displaced by the Israeli air campaign, particularly in the hard-hit villages and towns of southern Lebanon. The number forced to leave their homes was estimated at 500,000 in a country with a population of 4 million.

Hezbollah missiles on Wednesday landed in the Israeli Arab town of Nazareth. Two brothers were killed around 5 p.m. when two rockets landed in the Safrefeh neighborhood in Israel's largest Arab city. Nazareth, a city of 75,000 people, has no public bomb shelters or early-warning sirens commonplace in other Israeli cities across the north.

The United States faces growing tensions with allies over its support of Israel's military campaign in Lebanon, amid calls for a cease-fire to help with the mounting humanitarian crisism the Washington Post reports. European allies are particularly alarmed about the high civilian death toll in Lebanon, and concerned that the U.S. position will increase tensions between the Islamic world and the West. "What there needs to be now is a cessation of hostilities," U.N. Deputy Secretary General Malloch Brown said yesterday. "The Middle East is littered with the results of people believing there are military solutions to political problems in the region." He said civilians are "very unfairly bearing the greatest brunt of the conflict." "The one thing that is guaranteed to send the Arab world and the Persian world over the edge is for the U.S. to be seen ultimately to be doing what they always believed -- to be fully in cahoots with Israel," said a European official. "The danger of allowing it to continue is that the United States is more and more despised. It's not like the U.S. had a good reputation within the region to start with."

The Washington Post editorial board again takes up its cudgel against diplomacy to end the fighting in Lebanon. The Post restates its view that a ceasefire would serve the interests of extremists. Instead, the Bush administration should insist on the passage by the U.N. Security Council of a resolution ordering Iran to stop the enrichment of uranium.

Howard Kurtz, writing in the Washington Post, reflects on criticism that the liberal blogosphere has been relatively quiet about the Israeli bombing of Lebanon. He notes that Slate Editor Jacob Weisberg recently returned from a trip to the Israeli-Lebanese border, funded by AIPAC, and proceeded to endorse the US-Israeli position. Wouldn't it have been better, Kurtz asks, if Slate, and not a pro-Israel lobby, had paid for his trip?

Hezbollah has created a ''state within a state'' in Lebanon and must be disarmed, Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora said in an interview published Thursday in an Italian daily, AP reports. Saniora's office said the prime minister had been misquoted. According to the report, Saniora had said that the Shiite militia has been doing the bidding of Syria and Iran, and that it can only be disarmed with the help of the international community and once a cease-fire has been achieved. He also said that international help was needed to persuade Israel to withdraw from the Shebaa Farms, a disputed territory that Lebanon claims and Hezbollah uses as a pretext to keep attacking Israeli forces.

The Turkish military is moving forward with plans to send forces into northern Iraq to clear out Turkish Kurdish guerrilla bases, the prime minister said Wednesday. But Erdogan also said officials were holding talks with the United States and Iraq in an attempt to defuse tensions.

Writing in TruthDig, JFP Board Member Tom Hayden offers his own experience as a legislator influenced by the “Israel lobby” to reflect on the Lebanon crisis. He notes that as a candidate in California, he felt he had to be certified as "kosher" by Israel's counsel general in Los Angeles. The de facto Israeli endorsement was communicated indirectly, in compliance with laws that prohibit foreign interference in an American election. Hayden expresses deep regret for his endorsement of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, suggesting that he was deceived about the war's aims, and offers his experience as a caution to Americans today. He notes that it is not being a “friend of Israel” to turn a blind eye to its actions.

In his syndicated column, Pat Buchanan argues that "what Israel is doing is imposing deliberate suffering on civilians, collective punishment on innocent people, to force them to do something they are powerless to do: disarm the gunmen among them. Such a policy violates international law...It is un-American and un-Christian." Buchanan asks why there hasn't been more criticism from Christian leaders. "Why is Pope Benedict virtually alone among Christian leaders to have spoken out against what is being done to Lebanese Christians and Muslims?"

Foreign policy critic Noam Chomsky in recent interviews has emphasized the context of Hamas' capture of the Israeli soldier which has been underreported in the U.S. press: the kidnapping of two Palestinian civilians by the IDF from their home in Gaza the day before, citing among other sources Gideon Levy in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz.

The US government has lost track of the cost of the "war on terror" unleashed after the September 11 attacks and which is now taking up tens of billions of dollars a year in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Government Accountability Office says. The GAO says that neither the Defence Department nor Congress had any accurate idea how much the war has cost since the attacks on New York and Washington in 2001.

The United States is lobbying hard to block Venezuela's bid for a seat on the U.N. Security Council, claiming that Venezuela will disrupt the body as it confronts hot issues such as Iran. But interviews with some 15 diplomats of member states reveal substantial wariness about the U.S. effort, with the critics warning it could boomerang against the U.S. choice, Guatemala, when the General Assembly votes in October.A European diplomat said U.S. lobbying against Venezuela would only gain it votes.

Scuffles, vandalism and angry accusations by supporters of Mexico's two presidential rivals forced politicians to appeal for calm to prevent the country's election dispute from erupting into violence. Local media reported late Wednesday that electoral officials had conducted a recount at about 2 percent of polling places that showed relatively untrained polling officials made mathematical errors that inflated totals for all candidates. The recounts -- which were conducted at polling places where Lopez Obrador claimed fraud had bolstered Calderon's vote total -- yielded new totals that favored Calderon.

Wednesday, July 19

The US is giving Israel a window of a week to inflict maximum damage on Hizbullah before weighing in behind international calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, according to British, European and Israeli sources, the Guardian reports. The Bush administration, backed by Britain, has blocked efforts for an immediate halt to the fighting. "It's clear the Americans have given the Israelis the green light. They will be allowed to go on longer, perhaps for another week," a senior European official said. British PM Blair resisted demands in parliament that he call for a ceasefire. He also indicated it might take many months to agree the terms of a UN stabilisation force on the Lebanese border. British officials privately acknowledged the US had given Israel a green light to continue bombing Lebanon until it believes Hizbullah's infrastructure has been destroyed. But Kim Howells, a UK Foreign Office minister, explicitly called for the US to rein in Israel. "I very much hope the Americans will be putting pressure on the Israelis to stop as quickly as possible." he said.

Israel is in violation of U.S. arms control laws for deploying U.S.-made fighter planes, combat helicopters and missiles to kill civilians and destroy Lebanon's infrastructure, Inter Press Service notes. "Section 4 of the (U.S.) Arms Export Control Act requires that military items transferred to foreign governments by the United States be used solely for internal security and legitimate self-defense," says Stephen Zunes, a professor at the University of San Francisco. "Since Israeli attacks against Lebanon's civilian infrastructure and population centers clearly go beyond legitimate self-defense, the United States is legally obliged to suspend arms transfers to Israel," Zunes told IPS.

The New York Times reports that action on a resolution at the UN Security Council critical of Iran for failing to suspend its uranium enrichment activities is on hold. Iran’s defense of Hizbollah has convinced the US that Iran is fueling the crisis to project power. “The American president says Hezbollah should be disarmed,” Iran's leader Khamenei said, “but it will not happen.” Iran’s former president Khatami, who tried to moderate Iran’s foreign policy, likened Hezbollah to “a shining sun that illuminates and warms the hearts of all Muslims and supporters of freedom.” The most significant recent change in Iranian support for Hezbollah is its transfer of longer-range rockets that can be fired into major Israeli cities, according to an analysis by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Despite its oratory, Iran is positioning itself for a role in resolving the crisis. Iran’s foreign minister said a cease-fire and an exchange of prisoners would be a possible way forward. Some analysts of Iran’s backing for Hezbollah are restrained in their conclusions of Iran’s role. “Iran will certainly benefit from Hezbollah strikes,” Cordesman wrote. But “Until there are hard facts, Iran’s role in all this is a matter of speculation, and conspiracy theories are not facts or news.”

The outlines of an American-Israeli consensus began to emerge in which Israel would continue to bombard Lebanon for another week or so to degrade the capabilities of the Hezbollah militia, the New York Times reports. Then, Secretary of State Rice would go to the region and seek to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and perhaps an international force to monitor Lebanon’s borders and prevent Hezbollah from obtaining more rockets for bombarding Israel. American officials signaled that Rice was waiting at least a few more days, in part to give Israel more time to weaken Hezbollah. The strategy carries risk, partly because it remains unclear just how long the rest of the world, particularly America’s Arab allies, will remain silent as the toll on Lebanese civilians rises.

Lebanese prime minister Siniora criticized the world for not stopping the Israeli offensive. “The international community is not doing all that it can in order to stop Israel continuing its aggression against Lebanon,” Siniora said. “They are stopping short of exercising the necessary pressure on Israel, while Israel is taking this as a green light.”
He accused Israel of “committing massacres against Lebanese civilians and working to destroy everything that allows Lebanon to stay alive.” Siniora said that he supported the release of the two Israeli soldiers. But he also said any solution to the crisis should include Israel’s withdrawal from the disputed Shebaa Farms area of the border, the release of Lebanese detainees in Israeli jails and a return to the terms of the 1949 armistice between the two countries. He suggested the Lebanese Army would move to southern Lebanon once these conditions were met. He backed the idea of a more robust international force, but only after “all the issues” were put on the table. Egypt's Foreign Minister said, ''A cease-fire is imperative.We have to bring it to an end as soon as possible.''

More civilians were killed in Israeli air strikes, at least 19, according to the AP, while the BBC put the total at 40, and Reuters at 50. Reuters reported that 12 Lebanese civilians, including several children, were killed and 30 people were wounded when Israeli jets bombed several houses in Srifa. Israeli forces also made their biggest incursion into the Gaza Strip in days, sending tanks into a refugee camp, where fighting lead to the deaths of nine Palestinians, officials said. Some 500,000 Lebanese have fled their homes to escape the violence, the UN estimated. Israel said it is aiming only at Hezbollah and not the Lebanese Army, although attacks on Monday and Tuesday killed 19 Lebanese soldiers. While the Israelis say they have chosen their targets, about 1,000 so far, with great care, their attacks seem to be spread almost randomly across the country. Israeli airstrikes hit targets in Beirut's main Christian enclave on Wednesday, a short distance from where hundreds of U.S. citizens were boarding a cruise ship chartered to evacuate them to the nearby island of Cyprus.

Hezbollah rockets again hit Haifa, the port city in northern Israel, and Nahariya, a coastal town just south of the border, where one man died and several were wounded, one critically. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis continued to spend their time in shelters, and Haifa was largely shut down, with only grocery stores and pharmacies open. More than 130 rockets were fired, Israeli officials said.

Some Americans in Beirut have been critical of the U.S. evacuation effort in Lebanon, pointing out that many European countries moved more quickly. A State Department spokesman said that Rice had decided to reverse a policy that required Americans being evacuated to sign a document promising to reimburse the government for the cost of their transport.

Israeli air attacks on civilian infrastructure like power plants, electricity transformers, airports, bridges, highways and government buildings, have led to accusations by France and the EU that Israel is guilty of “disproportionate use of force” in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and of “collective punishment” of the civilian populations, the New York Times reports. Referring to complaints that Israel was using disproportionate force, Israel’s United Nations ambassador said, “You’re damn right we are…If your cities were shelled the way ours were,” he said, “you would use much more force than we are or we ever will.” Raji Sourani, a Gazan lawyer who directs the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, said “What Israel is doing in Gaza now has nothing to do with the captured soldier. I don’t think bridges, power stations or airports have anything to do with the soldier. I don’t think denying access for goods and people has anything to do with the soldier, or denying medicine, or bombarding one of the world’s most densely populated areas by day and night.”

Iran's Hizbollah, which claims links to the Lebanese group of the same name, said on Tuesday it stood ready to attack Israeli and U.S. interests worldwide."We have 2,000 volunteers who have registered since last year,'' said Iranian Hizbollah's spokesman. "We are ready to dispatch them to every corner of the world to jeopardise Israel and America's interests. We are only waiting for the Supreme Leader's green light to take action. If America wants to ignite World War Three ... we welcome it,'' he said. Iranian religious organisations have made great public show of recruiting volunteers for "martyrdom-seeking operations'' in recent years, usually threatening U.S. interests in case of any attack against the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. But there is no record of an Iranian volunteer from these recruitment campaigns taking part in an attack. Despite Iranian Hizbollah's insistence that it takes orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei, government ministries say Hizbollah does not implement official policy. Iran's government has said it hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Israeli offensive in Lebanon. While Iran did fund and support Lebanese Hizbollah during the 1980s, Tehran says it has not contributed troops or weapons in the latest violence.

Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there. Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week. Diplomats cautioned the increasingly aggressive Turkish statements were likely aimed at calming public anger and pressing the U.S. and Iraq to act against the Turkish Kurdish guerrillas. But they also said Turkish politicians and military officers could act if nothing is done. American officials have repeatedly warned Turkey against entering northern Iraq.

David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, calls for an end to the "slow-motion diplomacy" of the United States. The Bush administration's passivity is inexplicable. The world is waiting for robust American diplomacy; instead we see a tongue-tied superpower. Israeli officials talk of breaking the Shiite militia. That goal is almost certain to fail. Israel tried something similar in 1982, only to be pinned down by Hezbollah's resistance movement and forced to retreat. Only a compulsive gambler would think the odds are better now. Rather than bringing positive change, military action in the Middle East tends to bring unanticipated consequences. If the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah stretches to weeks and even months, how long will it be before the United States faces a Shiite insurgency in Iraq, which would almost certainly spell a decisive American defeat there? And, ominously, CIA and FBI officials are said to be hearing increased "chatter" about new terrorist attacks in America. Analysts often cite Chamberlain's policy of appeasement that emboldened the Nazis. But it's also worth considering the lesson of 1914, in which the world slipped toward a war that could have been avoided had statesmen escaped the lock-step chain of action and response.

Some U.S. military and intelligence officials said they were puzzled by Israel's strategy and concerned that its goals are unrealistic, the Washington Post reports. Israel has "target packages" but no viable long-term strategy, a senior U.S. official said. There is limited reason to believe that either Hezbollah or Hamas can be compelled to give up their Israeli prisoners or end the attacks. Others questioned the impact on the Lebanese government and the very military force Israel hopes will eventually take over the areas now under Hezbollah's control. "Won't Israeli military actions have the effect of decreasing the already limited capacities of the Lebanese government?" asked retired Army Col. Andrew Bacevich. "Going after Hezbollah makes sense, but I just don't understand the rationale for the campaign as it is being conducted." But retired Israeli army Col. Gal Luft said, "Israel is attempting to create a rift between the Lebanese population and Hezbollah supporters by exacting a heavy price from the elite in Beirut. The message is: If you want your air conditioning to work and if you want to be able to fly to Paris for shopping, you must pull your head out of the sand and take action toward shutting down Hezbollah-land." Other specialists in security strategy said that Israel is sending messages to several audiences, telling the people of Lebanon that the attack is the price of tolerating the Hezbollah's presence and the broader Arab world that its current response is the price of provoking Israel.

Mexican President Fox rejected claims on Tuesday of fraud in Mexico's election to replace him.  Fox had stayed out of the growing dispute about the election, but he finally weighed in on Tuesday during a visit to Spain. "In Mexico, there is no electoral fraud. Never,'' Fox told a small group of demonstrators protesting the alleged vote-rigging. Fox was ridiculed by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the candidate who says election results that showed him losing by about 0.6 percentage points are bogus. Lopez Obrador said the president was living in a world of his own, which he called ``Foxilandia.'' Lopez Obrador again warned on Tuesday of unrest if all the ballots are not counted again. "If we want political, economic and social stability, the votes must be counted,'' he said. An opinion poll released on Tuesday showed about 56 percent of Mexicans think the election was clean but 35 percent believe there was fraud.

Tuesday, July 18

Today's New York Times and Washington Post editorials on the Lebanon crisis present a study in contrasts. The New York Times says it's time for diplomacy. The dangers of escalation are too great. The Security Council is divided: the Bush administration says Hezbollah should act first, returning the abducted Israeli soldiers and halting rocket attacks before any cease-fire, while others envision a simultaneous halting of hostilities by both sides. Those differences need to be worked out, so that the killing and human suffering can stop. Washington is right to press for the release of the Israeli soldiers, but this should not be a precondition for the earliest possible cease-fire. Many lives and the stability of the wider region depend on achieving a quick halt to the fighting.

But the Washington Post says the war must go on. The current warfare "stems not from Israel's occupation of Arab lands or its holding of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners, but from a blatant bid by Iran and Syria and their allies in Hamas and Hezbollah to stop the creation of a democratic Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and the parallel consolidation of a democracy in Lebanon." The only satisfactory outcome is a decisive defeat for these forces. Extremists favor a cease-fire because they know that the longer the fighting continues, the more damage Israel is likely to do to the military infrastructure and leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah.

The Lebanese government, until recently considered to be allied with the West, has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire.

Israeli officials accused the Lebanese military of directly aiding Hezbollah fighters in an attack on an Israeli naval vessel. It should be noted that the ship in question was enforcing a naval blockade on the country, so if it were true that part of the Lebanese military were involved in the attack it would perhaps not be shocking. A naval blockade is an act of war against a country; this is something that a country's military would ordinarily feel some obligation to respond to.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowed that Israel would not halt its offensive on Lebanon until four conditions were met: the release of two soldiers abducted last week, the deployment of the Lebanese army along a buffer zone at the border, the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from that zone and the implementation of U.N. Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of militias such as Hezbollah.

Israeli flyers are raining down on Lebanese -- some are cartoons mocking Hizbollah, others are warnings to stay away from the stronghold of the guerrilla group. The flyers are part of attempts by Israel to turn Lebanese against the guerrilla group. Lebanon is already split between opponents of Hizbollah who blame the group for sparking an Israeli campaign, and supporters of the group. But such caricatures appear to have little effect on people's opinion. "The cartoon flyer is cute. Usually these are threats to destroy Beirut and since we are seeing people blown up on TV all the time, this seems like comic relief,'' said a graphic designer. "I didn't like the warnings to people to leave the south though, because where does Israel expect people to go when it has cut off the roads?'' Residents scared by strikes and Israeli warnings have fled but roads are unsafe. Over 200 civilians have been killed in Lebanon since the crisis began a week ago, including 20 who died when an Israeli missile struck their van as they fled a border village in line with Israeli warnings by loudspeaker.

In Israel, Public Security Minister Dichter said Israel might at some stage have to negotiate over Lebanese prisoners held in Israel to end the crisis.

The international community, led by Israel, wants Lebanese soldiers to deploy along the border to push back Hezbollah fighters as a condition in any future peaceful settlement, the AP reports. But analysts say such a move is problematic because ethnic and religious divisions have left the 70,000-strong force unable to function well as an independent fighting force. On Saturday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora said his government wanted to work with the United Nations toward reasserting state authority over all Lebanese territory. The Lebanese army far outnumbers Hezbollah's estimated 6,000 fighters. But its troops lack guerrilla battle experience and religious zeal. With many Shiite members, the army could also break up along sectarian lines, as it did during the civil war.

Israel would be ready to call a cease-fire with Hezbollah if its captured soldiers are returned, the Lebanese army deploys along the countries' shared border and the future disarmament of the militia can be guaranteed, its foreign minister said Tuesday. Livni said the time for diplomacy was at hand, though she added that Israel's military operations would not end until its goals are reached. Livni also gave a tacit endorsement for an international force in Lebanon that could temporarily help the Lebanese army enforce a cease-fire. In recent days, Western nations have proposed sending a beefed-up international force to the area, bolstering one already in place there -- a proposal that until now has been received coolly by Israel. Livni also said, however, that Israel's experience with the current U.N. force stationed in south Lebanon was ''not satisfactory'' and that Israel prefers no such force in the long-term. In recent days, Israeli officials have sent conflicting signals about whether Israel would demand Hezbollah's disarmament as a condition for a cease-fire. Livni's comments indicated Israel would accept future disarmament, provided that Lebanon immediately deploy its own troops along the border to prevent any future rocket attacks against northern Israel.

In Mexico, Felipe Calderon said Monday he has begun working on his new government, even though the country's electoral court has yet to declare a winner in the disputed race. Under Mexican law he cannot be declared president-elect until an electoral court deals with challenges to the vote. But Calderon said Monday the country can't sit dormant pending a decision from the court, which must rule on the election by Aug. 31 and declare a president-elect by Sept. 6. Calderon's comments came a day after more than 300,000 (more than a million, according to one press report) Lopez Obrador supporters jammed the capital's central plaza. Chanting ''Vote by vote!'' they backed the former mayor's calls for a manual re-count of an election he says was stolen from him by fraud.

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